Greg Melikov’s Horses to Watch
Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won four times, finished second nine times and ran third three times since Nov. 5. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.
AQUEDUCT
Law Enforcement: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than 4 ½ lengths after a half-mile, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up three lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on the inner track Dec. 4.
Coaltown Legend: Raced eighth and last early, advanced to seventh more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to make up 6 ½ lengths in stretch and gained second by a neck at six furlongs on Nov. 20; ran final quarter in 22 4/5.
Gambling Geraldine: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, guided four wide for clearance entering stretch and gained third beaten a nose and a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 9; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.
CALDER
Saratoga Matt: Shuffled back at break, raced 10th and last more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied outside from sixth in stretch and won going away by two lengths at a mile on a good turf course Nov. 5. (Broke 10th and last, trailed early, advanced to ninth more than 11 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung wide from fourth in stretch and rallied to finish second by a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf Nov. 26.)
Stage Deli: Raced more than 2 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, waited behind wall of rivals on far turn, angled out in stretch and closed to finish second beaten a nose at a mile on Oct. 20; returned $6.10 for place. (Broke slowly, raced sixth and last more than 13 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a nose at a mile on Nov. 10.)
DELTA DOWNS
Crème de Cacoa: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied four wide on far turn, closed fast from fifth in stretch to make up more than three lengths and finished second beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 7.
Classic Robbery: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fourth five wide in the stretch to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at five furlongs on a sealed muddy surface Nov. 22.
Nacho Business: Stalked pace a length and a head behind in third after a half-mile, took command in stretch by three lengths and won in hand by 7 ¾ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Sept. 25 at Monmouth Park. (Stalked pace a length and two heads behind in fourth after a half-mile, slipped through inside to gain lead by a length in upper stretch and drew off to win by 7 ¾ lengths at seven furlongs on Nov. 19.)
FAIR GROUNDS
Dreams Cut Short: Reluctant to load, raced eighth early, dropped to ninth more than nine lengths behind after a half-mile, came three wide into stretch, jockey lost whip nearing eighth pole and battled gamely to finish second beaten a head at about a mile on the turf Dec. 3.
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS
Famous Dottie: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fifth to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths in stretch and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 6.
Bits and Bobs: Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in fourth after three-eighths of a mile, closed steadily in stretch and finished second by 3 ¼ lengths at five furlongs on Oct. 23. (Raced two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied a bit in stretch and gained second by a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 12.)
GULFSTREAM PARK
Roman Bay: Raced more than 6 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, saved ground around turn, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ¾ lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Dec. 8; ran final quarter in 23 4/5.
Minister Colin: Raced ninth early, dropped to 11th more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run and closed well from fifth to finish third beaten a head and a neck at a mile on the turf Dec. 4.
HAWTHORNE
One More Tap: Steadied a bit nearing turn, raced fifth more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied between rivals in stretch to make up four lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Dec. 4.
Kind Regards: Pressed pace early, raced two lengths behind in second after a half-mile, lost position to third midway on turn, rallied in stretch to make up nearly two lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on Nov. 2. (Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, shifted out in stretch losing ground to fifth and rallied to finish second by 3 ¾ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 9.)
Diva’s Diamond: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile and rallied a bit from fourth in stretch to finish third by six lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 19. (Raced more than seven lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, carried out by pacesetter while rallying in stretch and dead-heated for second at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 3.)
Dixie Shoes: Raced 7 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, angled out near mid-stretch, rallied to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a length at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course Oct. 26. (Raced fourth early, dropped to sixth 11 lengths behind after half-mile and closed the gap a bit in stretch to finish third at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course Nov. 17.)
HOLLYWOOD PARK
Blue Samurai: Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run and rallied from fourth to gain second by 2 ¾ lengths at a mile on the turf Nov. 11 at Calder. (Led by a length after a half-mile, battled throughout the stretch and lost the bob at the wire finishing second beaten a nose at six furlongs on the turf Dec. 9.)
Givine: Raced sixth and last 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide in stretch to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf Sept. 30 at Santa Anita. (Prompted pace four wide a half-length and a head in third after a half-mile, grabbed lead in stretch by a length and fought gamely losing bob at wire by a nose to finish second at six furlongs on the turf Dec. 7.)
LAUREL PARK
Shookstown Road: Raced fourth early, dropped to fifth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile during troubled trip, checked and steadied from five-eighths pole to far turn, awaited room for drive, swung out five wide in upper stretch, closed gamely from fourth to make up more than two lengths and finished second beaten a nose at seven furlongs on Nov. 19.
Mystical Terp: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, cruised up behind rivals near quarter pole and rallied in stretch from second to win by length at six furlongs on Nov. 9. (Raced six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, drifted out in mid-stretch and finished third by a length at six furlongs on Dec. 3.)
Unbridled Pride: Rated close to pace in fourth after a half-mile, surged between rivals in upper stretch, took command and drew clear to win by 3 ½ lengths at six furlongs on a good surface Nov. 17. (Tracked pace three lengths behind in third after a half-mile, closed in stretch to pass pacesetter and win by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Dec. 10; returned $25 on front end.)
Muscadine: Bumped at break, raced ninth more than 18 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied wide from fifth in stretch to make up seven lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 8; ran final quarter in 22 4/5. (Raced 10th and last more than 14 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied from fifth to finish third by 3 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface Dec. 7.)
PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)
Cantona: Raced seventh and last early, advanced to sixth more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied very wide from fourth to make up more than 3 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on a good surface Dec. 6; ran final quarter in 24 3/5.
Believe in West: Raced third early, dropped to fifth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, eased out in stretch and closed fast to make up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at a mile on Nov. 7.
Padre Ed: Raced four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, took lead in mid-stretch and drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths at a mile on Nov. 14. (Pressed pace a head and a half-length behind in third after a half-mile and rallied a bit in stretch to finish second beaten a half-length at a mile and 70 yards on a good surface Dec. 6.)
Knocked Out: Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after three-eighths of a mile and closed well in stretch to gain second by a nose at 5 ½ furlongs on Oct. 11 at Delaware Park. (Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in sixth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied five wide in stretch and dead-heated for first at 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 5 at Delaware Park.)
Reason to Drink: Pressed pace early, led by a head after a half-mile, increased margin to 1 ½ lengths while drifting out in mid-stretch and won by three-quarters of a length under steady urging at six furlongs on Oct. 15; returned $18.20 on front end. (Broke alertly from inside post, led by 1 ½ lengths off rail and won by a length at six furlongs on Nov. 26; returned $14.20 on front end.)
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Pack Attack: Roughed up breaking 12th and last, advanced to seventh more than 5 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fifth in stretch to make up nearly three lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 5 ½ furlongs on Dec. 7.
TURF PARADISE
Complete Rule: Steadied after start, advanced from fifth to third three lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs Dec. 5.
Wolgan Valley: Raced 8 ½ lengths behind in fifth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied four wide in stretch to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at about five furlongs on the turf Nov. 6.
TURFWAY PARK
Justifiably Salty: Raced sixth early, dropped to eighth more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, swung eight wide leaving turn, rallied in stretch to make up more than 6 ¼ lengths and finished third beaten a neck and a half-length at six furlongs on Dec. 4.
WOODBINE
Kings Parade: Raced three lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile and rallied turning for home to gain second by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 6. (Raced five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to finish second by a neck at seven furlongs on Dec. 2.)
Baffert Preparing Stable of BC Candidates
By GREG MELIKOV
Trainer Bob Baffert is loaded for bear, which means aggressively seeking confrontation, when it comes to next month’s Breeders’ Cup.
He is the third leading winner of BC races with seven triumphs. He won his first in 1992 in the Sprint with Thirty Slews and his last in the same race three years ago when Midnight Lute repeated.
Baffert could have even more BC starters than in ’99 when eight ran at Gulfstream Park. He hopes to do better than the afternoon I witnessed trackside when he had just two seconds – Chilukki in the Juvenile Fillies and Tuzla in the Mile.
The conditioner hopes to send nine horses to Louisville. “I’d better get nine spots on the plane,” he recently told the Daily Racing Form.
Right now he plans to saddle Euroears and The Factor in the Sprint and Candrea in the Juvenile Fillies. Baffert captured the Juvenile Fillies twice with Indian Blessing in ’07 and Silverbulletday in ’98.
He’s also counting on Game On Dude for the Classic, which has escaped him. His best finish came in ’98 when Kentucky Derby-Preakness champ Silver Charm was runner-up to Awesome Again.
Baffert is having a great year with his horses capturing more than two dozen graded stakes races. Game On Dude leads the stable with victories in the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap and the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes, both Grade 1s.
In the Goodwood at Santa Anita on Oct. 1, he dueled with Awesome Gem before scoring by a half-length at the end of 1 1/8 miles. Both were sired by Awesome Again.
Baffert called the winning effort “incredible,” adding that “I feel good about him” going into the Classic.
However, Game On Dude will face a fairly strong field in the Classic that will include Flat Out, who posted victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban at Belmont Park, and was Woodward runner-up to filly Havre de Grace, one of the future betting favorites in the Nov.5 race.
Bafffert’s other BC hopefuls are Irish Gypsy, Filly and Mare Sprint; Irrefutable, Dirt Mile; Secret Circle, the Juvenile or Juvenile Sprint; Drill, Juvenile; and Plum Pretty, Ladies’ Classic.
One Baffert trainee that won’t make the BC is Coil, winner of the Haskell Invitational that finished third in the Goodwood. He announced Sunday he will rest the 3-year-old and run him in stakes next year at Santa Anita’s winter-spring meeting.
Baffert is approaching BC Days during a very successful season. Through Oct. 9, according to the Racing Form, his stable had won 106 races and earned more than $11 million, third on the national list behind trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen.
He is fourth in BC earnings with $10,720,000 and a record of 7-9-3 in 57 outings.
The Hall of Fame trainer has won two legs of the Triple Crown four times, with the Belmont Stakes his nemesis three times.
Baffert took the Preakness five times — his latest in ’10 with Lookin at Lucky, tying him for second with two others, including Lukas.
He strung together three Eclipse outstanding trainer awards beginning in ’97. And he was responsible for 11 horses being crowned Eclipse champions in 14 categories.
Breeders’ Cup Repeats Few and Far Between
By GREG MELIKOV
Repeat winners are exceptional in Breeders’ Cup races. Most rare is one fabulous thoroughbred aiming to break her record of three straight victories in the BC mile next month.
Goldikova should have an edge returning to Churchill Downs where she defeated Gio Ponti by 1 ¾ lengths last time. A fourpeat for the 6-year-old exactly a year later on Nov. 5? Not out of the question since she has been whipping the boys for years.
A couple of other distaffers came oh-so-close to repeating last year. Midday fell a neck short to Shared Account in the BC Filly & Mare Turf.
In the most heartbreaking defeat, Zenyatta lost to Blame by a head in the BC Classic while trying to repeat in the same race and going undefeated in her 20th career race.
However, I agree with quite a few racing experts that the strongest Classic field in history gathered at Churchill Downs in ’98.
The 10 horses included Coronado’s Quest, winner of the Wood Memorial, Travers and Haskell, who sprinted to the lead from the break, but never was in front by more than a length for the first mile.
Pressing the pace in second for six furlongs was ’97 Classic champ Skip Away before fading to sixth. Silver Charm, the ’98 Dubai World Cup winner that captured the previous year’s Preakness and Belmont, advanced to second with a quarter-mile to go.
When they turned for home traveling fastest of all was Awesome Again, victorious in the ’98 Stephen Foster and Whitney. The son of Deputy Minister split horses in the stretch nearing the wire and prevailed by a length.
Silver Charm, who had gained a narrow lead entering the stretch, drifted wide, but held on for second by a neck over English champ Swain. A nose back in fourth was Victory Gallop, who captured the ’98 Belmont, while Coronado’s Quest faded to fifth.
There have been only eight repeat winners in the same BC race during the past 27 world championships.
In addition to Goldikova, four came in the 21st Century: Tiznow, ’00-01 Classic; High Chaparral, ’02-03 Turf; Midnight Lute, ’07-08 Sprint; and Conduit, ’08-09 Turf.
Goldikova won the BC Mile in ’08 by 1 ¼ lengths and repeated in ’09 by a half-length, both times defeating 10 challengers on a firm Santa Anita Park grass course.
She’ll be coming into this $2 million race with a less stellar record across the Atlantic than the previous two years: Two victories and three seconds. Her record in ’10 beyond the ocean was four wins and a second in five outings.
On Oct. 2, the daughter of Anabaa lost by a head in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp in Paris, wrapping up the European portion of her celebrated career. She captured the ’10 Foret and finished third in the ’09 race.
But don’t count the grand lady out in the BC Mile. Fourteen of her 17 triumphs have been in Group 1 contests. She has only finished off the board once while running second six times and third twice.
Don’t Rely on Horse-for-the-Course Angle in Derby
By GREG MELIKOV
If you’re thinking about the horse-for-the-course angle in the Kentucky Derby, better have something more in your handicapping toolbox.
More than two dozen horses that previously won as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs failed in the Derby. The average finish of about 50 runners with at least one race on the main track was off the board.
However, two colts during the past four years repeated their victories in sophomore stakes at Churchill Downs in the Derby: Street Sense in ’07, who captured the ’06 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Super Saver in ’10, who won the ’09 Kentucky Jockey Club.
More important over the long haul is how horses handle the main track working toward the big dance as most winners during the past decade posted bullet workouts.
Two horses that probably will be longshots have really taken to Churchill Downs. Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who has only raced at the California track, has posted two bullets on less than fast surfaces.
The son of War Chant on Monday breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in the slop. On April 27, he breezed six furlongs on a good surface in 1:13 3/5.
Shackelford, runner-up in the Florida Derby, has recorded two bullet works: 58 4/5 breezing for five furlongs on the fast main track last Saturday and 1:00 1/5 breezing for five furlongs in the slop on April 23.
In addition, the son of Forestry did break his maiden at Churchill Downs, capturing a seven-furlong race.
However, his running style isn’t exactly the way to win the Derby. During the previous 136th renewals only 22 horses went wire to wire. The last time was in ’02 when War Emblem triumphed by four lengths.
Spend a Buck led at every call in ’85 winning by 5 ¼ lengths recording the fourth fastest time for the 1 ¼-contest: 2:00 1/5.
Since ’87, seven horses that had the lead at the eighth pole weren’t the first to hit the wire. However, only Sea Cadet in ’91 failed to hit the board, finishing eighth.
Four managed to run second: Closing Argument, ’05; Cavonnier, ’96; Casual Lies, ’92; and Bet Twice, ’87.
Two horses in Saturday’s Derby that like to come off the pace posted bullets for works last month. Gotham winner Stay Thirsty breezed five furlongs in the slop in a minute on April 24, the quickest of 19 works.
On Sunday, he went five furlongs in the slop in 1:01 4/5, two two-fifths slower than stablemate Uncle Mo, who won the BC Juvenile last year at Churchill Downs.
Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch caught a fast track on April 29 and breezed five furlongs in 59 2/5, sharing the quickest time of 59 runners.
The son of Arch ran once at Churchill Downs back in November, finishing second in his career debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight contest.
Surprisingly, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, the likely lukewarm Derby favorite has confined his workouts to the Palm Meadows training facility in South Florida.
The son of Mineshaft on April 28 cruised five furlongs in 48 2/5, third fastest of six runners.
Dialed In broke his maiden right off the bat in November at Churchill Downs, taking a sprint.
$1 Million Louisiana Derby Attracts a Full Field
By GREG MELIKOV
There are several talented 3-year-olds going in the 98th Louisiana Derby that must prove themselves worthy of continuing on the Road to the Roses.
The uncoupled trainees of Neil Howard figure to give morning line 9-5 favorite Much Macho Man the most trouble.
Wilkinson has been freshened since his head victory over Pants on Fire in the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 22. Garret Gomez retains the mount on the son of Lemon Drop Kid, 8-1, who drew post 10 in the 13-horse field.
Howard also sends out Machen, fourth to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star on Feb. 19 after winning his first two starts. The son of Distorted Humor rallied powerfully on the far turn of 1 1/16-mile contest, but failed to sustain his drive in the stretch.
Machen, the early 7-2 second choice, picks up the services of Edgar Prado and will break from post 7.
“Machen is a nice, laid back kind of horse and nothing seems to bother him, but Wilkinson — I think he likes to lay awake at night thinking, ‘What can I do tomorrow to mess things up for myself?’ ” Howard said.
There is no one in the $1 million stakes race with more than two victories.
The Oaklawn Park-based Elite Alex, the 6-1 morning line third choice was a late addition to the Louisiana Derby field after being scratched from the Rebel because he drew post 10. Unfortunately, the Tim Ritchey charge winds up in post 12 at Fair Grounds, with a long run to the first turn of the 1 1/8-mile contest.
Rajiv Maragh, who gained the mount on Mucho Macho Man after Eibar Coa was seriously injured in a spill at Gulfstream Park, will be back in the saddle when the colt breaks from post 5.
He made his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull States on Jan. 30 at his Gulfstream Park base, where he was cutting back a one-turn mile.
After being bumped hard in the opening strides, Mucho Macho Man moved up to contest the quick pace and tired late to finish fourth behind Dialed In.
The Kathy Ritvo trainee bounced back to capture the Risen Star by 1 ½ lengths with the blinkers taken off to help him relax early.
Neither third-place finisher Rogue Romance, off the Kentucky Derby Trail with an injury, or runner-up Santiva, awaiting the April 16 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be in the 13-horse field on Saturday.
It’s worth noting that Louisiana tracks have not played a significant role in the past 15 Kentucky Derby winners. Several high-profile horses have triumphed recently in the Louisiana Derby and then faltered in the Derby: High Limit, Circular Quay, Pyro, Friesan Fire and Mission Impazible.
In addition, Risen Star winners Dollar Bill (2001) and Lawyer Ron (’06) were also well-backed in the Derby but ran poorly.
As for the Louisiana Derby, only two winners scored in Louisville. Grindstone did it in ’96 while the filly Black Gold was victorious in ’24.
Greg Melikov’s Horses to Watch
Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won six times, finished second twice and ran third five times since Dec. 17. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.
AQUEDUCT
Wachiwi: Raced 3 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 7.
This Hard Land: Broke slowly, hesitated a bit, raced ninth and last 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, ran greenly losing ground into the far turn, advanced between rivals just past the three-sixteenths pole, rallied in stretch to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second by 1 ¾ lengths at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 1.
T Rae: Avoided bumping at start, raced sixth early, dropped to seventh fifth lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced four wide into stretch, rallied from fourth to make up three lengths and finished second beaten a length at six furlongs on Dec. 29.
Upper Gulch: Raced more than 12 lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, advanced between rivals into stretch, rallied to make up more than 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by a nose at a mile on a good turf course Dec. 10.
Wind in My Sails: Bobbled at break, steadied on first turn, raced more than five lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain third by a head at a mile on Dec. 2. (Raced 2 ½ links behind in third after a half-mile, outkicked in stretch and finished in the same position at six furlongs on Jan. 9.)
CHARLES TOWN
Silver Pizzazz: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled off rail three wide on turn, rallied to make up three lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at 6 ½ furlongs on Oct. 20 at Woodbine; ran final quarter in 24 2/5. (Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled five wide entering stretch and rallied from fifth to finish second beaten a neck at seven furlongs on Jan. 12.)
FAIR GROUNDS
Generous Offer: Bumped with rival at break, raced more than 12 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, moved out under strong urging on far turn, came five wide into stretch, rallied to make up more than 5 ½ lengths and finished third beaten a neck and three-quarters of a length at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 6.
Sweetsouthernmoon: Raced more than four lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, closed fast in stretch to make up more than 4 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten a nose at six furlongs on Dec. 6; ran final quarter in 24 seconds. (Broke fifth and last, slow into stride, trailed by 10 lengths after a half-mile, drifted out at top of stretch and finished third by a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 8)
Sherlock: Bumped on both sides at break, raced seventh early, dropped to eighth more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch, rallied to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 25; ran final quarter in 24 4/5. (Broke a bit slow fifth and last, advanced to second 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, accelerated to the lead by 1 ½ lengths in stretch and drew off to win by 6 ½ lengths eased up in final sixteenth of the six furlongs on Jan. 5.)
GULFSTREAM PARK
Royal Lahaina: Raced more than 1 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, lost ground going five wide around turn, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 9.
Mending Hearts: Raced more than six lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, box in midway through far turn, angled five wide for stretch run and finished third beaten a neck and a length at a mile on the turf Dec. 17 at Calder. (Broke on top, dueled early, led by a half-length after a quarter-mile, raced second a head back after a half, edged away in stretch and won by 1 ½ lengths at a mile on Jan. 7.)
HAWTHORNE
So Busted: Broke slowly 10th and last, steadied off rival, raced more than 8 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, shifted out four wide leaving turn and rallied in stretch to finish third beaten a head for second at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 18. (Threw head back at break, altered course early to avoid rival, raced 10th more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, shifted out on far turn, split foes in upper stretch, rallied to gain command nearing furlong marker and turned back challenge to win by a neck at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 17; returned $29 on front end.)
LAUREL PARK
Urban Speed: Raced 7 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, saved ground around turn, angled out in upper stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a length at six furlongs on Jan. 5. (Raced more than five lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, swung wide into stretch and finished third by 1 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 17.)
OAKLAWN PARK
Splash of Roses: Raced more than seven lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, advanced five wide into stretch, rallied willingly from third to make up 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 15.
Crystal Moment: Broke outward at start, went to front willingly along rail, led by 1 ½ lengths under tight restraint after a half-mile, increased margin to six lengths in stretch and won by 12 ¼ lengths ridden out in 1:10 1/5 at six furlongs on Dec. 22 at Fair Grounds.
PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)
Peaches My Dear: Raced 11th and last more than 10 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, closed fast outside from fifth to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths in stretch and finished fourth beaten two noses and a neck at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 8.
Western Mon: Pressed pace a length behind in third after a half-mile, dropped to fourth going wide into stretch, rider lost whip at sixteenth pole, closed gamely and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on Dec.18; ran final quarter in 24 1/5.
Shesmyspite: Broke on top, led by a length after a half-mile, continued to set pace into stretch, weakened and finished second by 2 ¼ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 5. (Pressed pace in second a head back after three-eighths of a mile and weakened late in stretch and held third by a neck at five furlongs on Dec. 31.)
SANTA ANITA PARK
Party With Brando: Raced fifth early, lost ground to sixth more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came off rail on far turn, angled out from fourth in stretch to make up 2 ¾ lengths and finished third beaten a head and a neck at a mile on the turf Jan. 9; ran final quarter in 22 4/5.
Stoneside: Raced seven lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came out four wide into stretch, rallied to make up nearly 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 6 ½ lengths on the turf Dec. 31; ran final 1 ½ furlongs in 28 seconds.
Spud Spivens: Raced four lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, went four wide entering stretch, rallied to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 20; ran final quarter in 24 1/5. (Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, swung five wide in stretch and finished third by 1 ½ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 1.)
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Icelus: Raced fourth early, dropped to sixth five lengths behind after a half-mile, steadied between rivals entering stretch, angled out, closed fast to make up nearly 2 ¾ lengths and finished third beaten a neck and 1 ¼ lengths at seven furlongs on Jan. 8.
Monterey Street: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, lost ground going three wide on turn, rallied in stretch to make up 3 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on the turf Dec. 23; ran final quarter in 24 1/5.
(Raced 4 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, angled out four wide for the drive and rallied in stretch to gain second by a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf Jan. 15.)
Satisfied Mind: Stalked pace less than three-quarters of a length behind in third after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to second, dueled with leader and edged clear to win by a length at a mile and 70 yards on Dec. 29. (Raced fourth early, grabbed lead by a head after a half-mile, shook clear by 1 ½ lengths in stretch and pulled away late to win by 7 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 9.)
TURF PARADISE
Commodore’s Alley: Broke in air, hung wide early, advanced to sixth more than 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, made a bold move from fourth six wide in stretch, made up more than 2 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on Jan. 7.
Warduty: Broke ninth and last, trailed by more than eight lengths after a half-mile, angled four wide into stretch, rallied from sixth to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at a mile on Dec. 21; ran final quarter in 24 3/5.
Major Madagan: Raced sixth more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide in stretch and finished second beaten a head at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 16. (Stalked pace 1 ½ lengths behind in second after a half-mile, dueled with pacesetter in stretch and drew off to win by three lengths at a mile on Jan. 10)
Ilikechocolatemilk: Broke ninth and last, raced seventh more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, made a big middle move gaining more than 6 ½ lengths five wide into stretch, made up more than 2 ¼ lengths and finished third beaten two noses at about a mile on the turf Oct. 10.
TURFWAY PARK
Tarage: Raced more than 5 ½ lengths in sixth after a half-mile, rallied five wide in stretch to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 12.
Robin My Girl: Raced 6 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, launched rally in three path on turn, angled out for stretch run, made up 3 ¾ lengths and finished second by two lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 2. (Broke slowly seventh and last, advanced to fourth more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, grabbed lead by a head in stretch and drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 15.
Bribon Hopes Third Cigar Mile Try Is the Charm
By GREG MELIKOV
Bribon hopes the third time around is the charm in the 20th Cigar Mile at Aqueduct when the gelding makes his 37th start on Saturday.
In 2008, the 7-year-old finished third to Tale of Ekati. Last year, he was runner-up to Kodiak Kowboy losing by a head.
Bribon with six victories at a mile on the dirt has won more times than the main contenders combined. But he hasn’t scored at the distance since the Metropolitan Handicap last year on May 25 at Belmont Park.
He’s coming off a victory in the seven-furlong Bold Ruler on Oct. 30 at Belmont and is 2-1-1 in four outings at Aqueduct.
“He’s an interesting horse,” said Todd Pletcher, who over this year as trainer. “He’s bred to be a turf route horse, but is at his best sprinting on the dirt. He’s a really cool horse to be around, with a great personality. He’s got a big heart, loves the game, tries hard, and is talented to go along with it.”
The horse that has banked more than $1.1 million recorded three of his 16 wins on the grass.
Two main contenders are aiming to improve on their poor performances in this month’s Breeders’ Cup races.
Girolamo, 11th in the BC Sprint at six furlongs, won two times at a mile last year at Belmont. Vineyard Haven, sixth in the BC Dirt Mile, has a victory at the distance but that was in ’08 as a juvenile.
Rick Mettee, assistant to Godolphin Racing’s trainer Saeed bin Suroor, said both horses were compromised in those BC efforts at Churchill Downs.
“Girolamo got an inside draw in a big field, and I don’t think he is the kind of horse who is sharp enough to stalk a 44-and-change pace,” he said. “I think he has 45-and-change speed. Hopefully, the mile will suit him a little better.
“Vineyard Haven was drawn outside and stalked a very fast pace. It looked like for a brief second he’d be there turning for home, but then he faded a little bit. (Morning Line) was able to hang in there and finish second, but everybody else faltered in the last furlong.
“It looks like, on paper, that there isn’t a tremendous amount of speed going in the Cigar Mile, and he’s another one who should pull a better trip.”
The $250,000 Grade 1 was renamed in ’97 for the two-time Horse of the Year that captured the race three years earlier when it was run as the NYRA Mile.
Cigar ran a mile on dirt only twice, both times at Aqueduct where he won by seven lengths a month after capturing an allowance contest by eight lengths.
Those two victories were the start of a 16-race winning streak that equaled ’48 Triple Crown champ Citation’s modern-day North American record, which stood up until recent years. Cigar retired in ’96 after banking a record $9,999, 813 that stood until Curlin ended his career in ’08 with earnings exceeding $10.5 million.
The 27th BC: How to Play Seven of 14 Races
By GREG MELIKOV
Fourteen races featuring many good horses is difficult to handicap even spread over two days. So when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup I concentrate on contests I’m comfortable wagering on and seek classy horses with outstanding recent form.
Three of the six BC races on Friday’s female card at Churchill Downs caught my eye: a pair for 2-year-olds and the Ladies’ Classic.
Winter Memories, the morning line 2-1 favorite breaking from post 7, is the one to beat in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at a mile. The daughter of El Prado likes to come from far back turning for home, but had the lead or was second in the stretch before drawing clear in both career starts defeating several taking her on again.
Her main challengers: More Than Real, post 11, ridden by hot jockey Garrett Gomez, and Near Normal, post 10, who has defeated the daughter of More Than Ready going wire to wire at the distance. Both are 10-1 and will be included in my exacta box.
The Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles features four contenders I’ll use in exotics. Undefeated Awesome Feather, the early 6-1 fourth choice breaking from post 4, has the top speed figure in the last, sweeping Calder’s Florida Stallion Stakes 2-year-old division.
I’m including morning line 7-2 favorite A Z Warrior, post 8, who won her debut on dirt in the Grade 1 Frizette; runner-up R Heat Lightning, 4-1, post 3; and Tell A Kelly, 9-2, post 12, never farther back in the stretch than second in her last and two previous two victories.
Any of the quartet I like could take the Ladies Classic at 1 1/8 miles. Two 4-year-olds offer the best early odds at 8-1: Malibu Prayer, post 3, and Unrivaled Belle, post 8. Each has a victory at the distance and in a Churchill Downs route.
The top two morning line choices break from the outside: Blind Luck, 9-5, post 10, and Havre De Grace, 4-1, post 11.
Havre De Grace edged Blind Luck by a neck in their last of three consecutive meetings, breaking a losing streak in graded stakes decided by no more than a neck.
On Saturday, I’m wagering on four of the eight BC contests starting with the Juvenile Turf at a mile. Four seems to be the number for me when considering contenders. So exotics it is again.
Pluck’s early odds are the lowest at 6-1. Winning twice and beaten a neck on three different grass courses made the difference even though he breaks from post 13.
In addition, I’ll use Air Support, 8-1, post 4, and Soldat, 8-1, post 9, both victorious in a graded stakes contest. And I’m tossing in Banned, 10-1, post 8, going for three in a row.
The Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles appears to a two-colt affair between Boys At Tosconova, 5-2, post 3, and Uncle Mo, 7-5, post 7, but the latter has an impressive win at a mile. I’m tossing in Stay Thirsty, 8-1, post 6, son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini bred for distance that’s 2-1-0 of 3.
I’m betting the BC Mile with my heart because Goldikova is going for the threepeat to make history. The morning line 6-5 choice breaks from post 10, a slot closer to the rail than last year when she won by a half-length at Santa Anita Park.
The 5-year-old mare has scored at the distance a dozen times and ran second thrice in 15 outings. I’m including two Grade 1 winners on grass in exotics: Gio Ponti, 4-1, post 3, and Proviso, 12-1, post 11.
Gio Ponti, 3 for 4 at a mile, shares the highest speed figure for eight furlongs, while Proviso is 4 for 8, including three victories at the distance this year.
Most racing fans will be cheering for Zenyatta to repeat in the BC Classic. Many horseplayers, however, are hoping the early 8-5 choice gets beat for a better payoff. Zenyatta who broke from post 4 in the ’09 in the 1 ¼ race drew post 8.
I’m pairing her on top of a trifecta with two males while hoping she stays undefeated in her 20th start:
Preakness champ Lookin at Lucky, 6-1, working exceptional well and going for his fourth straight breaking from post 12 that should keep him out of trouble early, and Blame, 9-2, post 5, with three victories at the Louisville track and winner of five Grade 1s in his last six contests.
Underneath I’m using Quality Road, 5-1, post 1; Haynesfield, 12-1, post 3; and Fly Down, 15-1, post 6.
Good luck in the 27th Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders’ Cup Spotlight Shines on Two Females
By GREG MELIKOV
It’s no longer a male’s world in the Breeders’ Cup as two of the most important races at Churchill Downs puts the spotlight on mares aiming to stage repeat performances.
There have been only eight repeat winners in the same BC race during the past 26 world championships. Five came in the 21st Century: Tiznow, ’00-01 Classic; High Chaparral, ’02-03 Turf; Midnight Lute, ’07-08 Sprint; Conduit, ’08-09 Turf; and Goldikova, ’08-09 Mile.
With her Oct. 2 victory in the Lady’s Secret Stakes, Zenyatta tied the modern North American thoroughbred streak of Peppers Pride, unbeaten in 19 consecutive contests, all in New Mexico.
Zenyatta will be gunning for No. 20 in a racing career that started on debut on Nov. 22, 2007. Her string of victories includes 11 Grade 1s, including the ’08 BC Ladies Classic and last year’s BC Classic.
The daughter of Street Cry has scored at five tracks this year, mostly on synthetic surfaces in California. The exception is two wins in the Apple Blossom on the dirt of Oaklawn Park.
Zenyatta heads one of the strongest fields in Classic history rich in experience on dirt, including Blame, the leading handicapping male, and Lookin at Lucky, the top 3-year-old.
Before being upset in Belmont Park’s Jockey Gold Cup by Haynesfield, Blame posted three Grade 1 triumphs at three different tracks, including the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs.
Haynesfield led all the way in the Gold Cup, also defeating third-place finisher Fly Down, Belmont and Travers runner-up among the Classic contenders. The previous Grade 1 Whitney saw the son of Speightstown finish fourth behind Blame and two others heading to the Classic, Quality Road and Musket Man.
Lucky at Lucky, equally successful on synthetic and dirt surfaces, has won his last three graded stakes since a very his troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby. The victories include the Preakness at Pimlico and Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.
Ironically, the strongest Classic field gathered at Churchill Downs in ’98. The 10 horses included:
Coronado’s Quest, winner of Wood Memorial, Travers and Haskell, sprinted to the lead from the break, but never was ahead by more than a length for the first mile.
Pressing the pace in second for six furlongs was ’97 Classic champ Skip Away before fading to sixth. Silver Charm, ’98 Dubai World Cup winner that captured the previous year’s Preakness and Belmont, advanced to second with a quarter-mile to go.
And down the stretch they came. Traveling fastest of all was Awesome Again, victorious in the ’98 Stephen Foster and Whitney. The son of Deputy Minister split horses nearing the wire and prevailed by a length.
Silver Charm, who had gained a narrow lead entering the stretch, drifted wide, but held on for second by a neck over English champ Swain. A nose back in fourth was Victory Gallop, who captured the ’98 Belmont, while Coronado’s Quest faded to fifth.
Awesome Again completed his unbeaten 4-year-old season going 6 for 6. If Zenyatta takes this year’s Classic assured of a full 14-horse field on Nov. 6 after pre-entries were announced Wednesday, she’ll end up 6 for 6 as a 6-year-old and nail down Horse of the Year honors.
Meanwhile, Goldikova is going where no horse has gone before in BC history. The 5-year-old is gunning for her third straight victory in the Mile.
She won in ’08 by 1 ¼ lengths and repeated last year by a half-length, both times defeating 10 challengers on a firm Santa Anita Park grass course. Her record this year across the Atlantic is four wins and a second in five outings. The field for the third consecutive year is 11 if there are no withdrawals from the pre-entries.
BC Preview: How Surfaces at Churchill Downs Play
By GREG MELIKOV
The main track at Churchill Downs, which hosts a record seventh Breeders’ Cup Nov. 5-6, is much different than any other dirt surface in the United States.
Most tracks are comprised of limestone with dirt on top. The Louisville venue has no such base while the track is mixed with a deep layer of soil, clay and organic materials several feet underneath the surface.
However, even the compositions of dirt surfaces vary. Calder Race Course’s main track is a 12-inch base of sand and clay with a 4 ½-inch cushion comprised of sand and clay. The surface becomes a bit cuppy while drying out from rain.
At Monmouth Park, where the 24th Breeders’ Cup was staged, a good rain results in a dead rail for a day or so.
Churchill Downs is way different up to 24 hours following a rainstorm. It just might become the best strip in racing, one expert says, because the main track turns faster compared to its dry, unusually deep surface that many horses don’t like.
Annual rainfall in Louisville is evenly distributed throughout the year. The wettest month is May when the Kentucky Derby is staged – 4.49 inches. November averages 3.62 inches.
You might remember that the winner of the 136th Kentucky Derby wasn’t that far back on May 1 when the track came up sloppy and was sealed. Super Saver was fourth within easy striking distance of pacesetter Conveyance after six furlongs of the 1 ¼ miles, fourth saving ground on the inside.
The son of Maria’s Mon advanced to second with a quarter-mile left, took command in the stretch and drew away to triumph by 2 ½ lengths. Ice Box rocked from 11th to beat out Paddy O’Prado for second by a neck.
Closers didn’t have many good afternoons during the entire spring-summer meeting at Churchill Downs while speed did well in sprints and routes.
In 92 races at six furlongs on the main track from April 24 through July 4, according to Bristnet.com, 30 percent of winners went wire to wire.
In 56 contests at 1 1/16 miles, 25 percent of winners led at every call. In fact, early speed and stalking was the best running style on dirt as well as grass. In 25 turf sprints, there were an amazing 44 percent wire jobs.
Going back to ’06 BC Day on Nov. 4, four of the five winners in races on the fast main track had the lead by the stretch. Only Invasor in the Classic was second a half-length behind Bernardini, but prevailed by a length at the end of the 1 ¼ miles.
In the BC Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles, Street Sense was more than six lengths behind after six furlongs and was checked attempting to rally on the turn, but rocketed in the stretch to gain a four-length lead and won by 10 lengths.
Only Dreaming of Anna led every step of the 1 1/16 miles in the Juvenile Fillies, winning by 1 ½ lengths. Thor’s Echo gained the lead by a head at the quarter pole in the six-furlong Sprint and scored by four lengths.
In the three turf routes, one winner was in front by the stretch while the other two victorious runners were third. Ouija Board increased her 1 ½-length margin heading to the wire and triumphed by 2 ¼ lengths in the 1 3/8-mile Filly and Mare Turf.
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