Baffert Preparing Stable of BC Candidates
By GREG MELIKOV
Trainer Bob Baffert is loaded for bear, which means aggressively seeking confrontation, when it comes to next month’s Breeders’ Cup.
He is the third leading winner of BC races with seven triumphs. He won his first in 1992 in the Sprint with Thirty Slews and his last in the same race three years ago when Midnight Lute repeated.
Baffert could have even more BC starters than in ’99 when eight ran at Gulfstream Park. He hopes to do better than the afternoon I witnessed trackside when he had just two seconds – Chilukki in the Juvenile Fillies and Tuzla in the Mile.
The conditioner hopes to send nine horses to Louisville. “I’d better get nine spots on the plane,” he recently told the Daily Racing Form.
Right now he plans to saddle Euroears and The Factor in the Sprint and Candrea in the Juvenile Fillies. Baffert captured the Juvenile Fillies twice with Indian Blessing in ’07 and Silverbulletday in ’98.
He’s also counting on Game On Dude for the Classic, which has escaped him. His best finish came in ’98 when Kentucky Derby-Preakness champ Silver Charm was runner-up to Awesome Again.
Baffert is having a great year with his horses capturing more than two dozen graded stakes races. Game On Dude leads the stable with victories in the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap and the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes, both Grade 1s.
In the Goodwood at Santa Anita on Oct. 1, he dueled with Awesome Gem before scoring by a half-length at the end of 1 1/8 miles. Both were sired by Awesome Again.
Baffert called the winning effort “incredible,” adding that “I feel good about him” going into the Classic.
However, Game On Dude will face a fairly strong field in the Classic that will include Flat Out, who posted victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban at Belmont Park, and was Woodward runner-up to filly Havre de Grace, one of the future betting favorites in the Nov.5 race.
Bafffert’s other BC hopefuls are Irish Gypsy, Filly and Mare Sprint; Irrefutable, Dirt Mile; Secret Circle, the Juvenile or Juvenile Sprint; Drill, Juvenile; and Plum Pretty, Ladies’ Classic.
One Baffert trainee that won’t make the BC is Coil, winner of the Haskell Invitational that finished third in the Goodwood. He announced Sunday he will rest the 3-year-old and run him in stakes next year at Santa Anita’s winter-spring meeting.
Baffert is approaching BC Days during a very successful season. Through Oct. 9, according to the Racing Form, his stable had won 106 races and earned more than $11 million, third on the national list behind trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen.
He is fourth in BC earnings with $10,720,000 and a record of 7-9-3 in 57 outings.
The Hall of Fame trainer has won two legs of the Triple Crown four times, with the Belmont Stakes his nemesis three times.
Baffert took the Preakness five times — his latest in ’10 with Lookin at Lucky, tying him for second with two others, including Lukas.
He strung together three Eclipse outstanding trainer awards beginning in ’97. And he was responsible for 11 horses being crowned Eclipse champions in 14 categories.
Breeders’ Cup Repeats Few and Far Between
By GREG MELIKOV
Repeat winners are exceptional in Breeders’ Cup races. Most rare is one fabulous thoroughbred aiming to break her record of three straight victories in the BC mile next month.
Goldikova should have an edge returning to Churchill Downs where she defeated Gio Ponti by 1 ¾ lengths last time. A fourpeat for the 6-year-old exactly a year later on Nov. 5? Not out of the question since she has been whipping the boys for years.
A couple of other distaffers came oh-so-close to repeating last year. Midday fell a neck short to Shared Account in the BC Filly & Mare Turf.
In the most heartbreaking defeat, Zenyatta lost to Blame by a head in the BC Classic while trying to repeat in the same race and going undefeated in her 20th career race.
However, I agree with quite a few racing experts that the strongest Classic field in history gathered at Churchill Downs in ’98.
The 10 horses included Coronado’s Quest, winner of the Wood Memorial, Travers and Haskell, who sprinted to the lead from the break, but never was in front by more than a length for the first mile.
Pressing the pace in second for six furlongs was ’97 Classic champ Skip Away before fading to sixth. Silver Charm, the ’98 Dubai World Cup winner that captured the previous year’s Preakness and Belmont, advanced to second with a quarter-mile to go.
When they turned for home traveling fastest of all was Awesome Again, victorious in the ’98 Stephen Foster and Whitney. The son of Deputy Minister split horses in the stretch nearing the wire and prevailed by a length.
Silver Charm, who had gained a narrow lead entering the stretch, drifted wide, but held on for second by a neck over English champ Swain. A nose back in fourth was Victory Gallop, who captured the ’98 Belmont, while Coronado’s Quest faded to fifth.
There have been only eight repeat winners in the same BC race during the past 27 world championships.
In addition to Goldikova, four came in the 21st Century: Tiznow, ’00-01 Classic; High Chaparral, ’02-03 Turf; Midnight Lute, ’07-08 Sprint; and Conduit, ’08-09 Turf.
Goldikova won the BC Mile in ’08 by 1 ¼ lengths and repeated in ’09 by a half-length, both times defeating 10 challengers on a firm Santa Anita Park grass course.
She’ll be coming into this $2 million race with a less stellar record across the Atlantic than the previous two years: Two victories and three seconds. Her record in ’10 beyond the ocean was four wins and a second in five outings.
On Oct. 2, the daughter of Anabaa lost by a head in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp in Paris, wrapping up the European portion of her celebrated career. She captured the ’10 Foret and finished third in the ’09 race.
But don’t count the grand lady out in the BC Mile. Fourteen of her 17 triumphs have been in Group 1 contests. She has only finished off the board once while running second six times and third twice.
Belmont: Historic Racetrack, Stakes Race
BY GREG MELIKOV
Flamboyant financier Leonard W. Jerome and well-heeled friends, including banker August Belmont Sr., built a racetrack in the Bronx that opened on Sept. 25, 1866.
The crowd at Jerome Park, named for its founder, included Gen. Ulysses S. Grant and members of New York’s fashionable society. It was the first track to attract women in large numbers. Even the horses were chic – ribbons of owners’ colors were braided into their manes and tails.
On opening day, Jerome’s horse Kentucky visited the winner’s circle and the owner hoisted 12-year-old daughter Jennie on his shoulders.
Jerome and Belmont also founded the American Jockey Club, which later evolved into the Jockey Club. It was said of the pair at the time, “People like Belmont and Jerome do not enter society, they create it as they go along.”
Jerome Park was an English-style track that required runners to negotiate three turns because of a dip in mid-backstretch while racing clockwise.
On June 19, 1867, a stakes named for Jerome’s closest friend was first staged. The Belmont went to the filly Ruthless, victorious over three horses.
When the track closed 22 years later to make way for a reservoir needed by the New York City water supply system, the Belmont Stakes moved in 1890 to Morris Park in the Bronx. The winner: Burlington over eight challengers.
In 1905, the race was shifted to a new track in Elmont, N.Y., built by several business partners including August Belmont II. The winner: Tanya, a filly that defeated six rivals.
Since then the race has been staged at Belmont Park except for 1963-67 when it was held at Aqueduct while the track was being rebuilt.
Belmont traditions have come and gone over the years. One custom lost to modern times is the winner’s colors being painted on the picket fence of Esposito’s Tavern near the track until it became a church.
In 1921, Grey Lag won the first Belmont run counter-clockwise.
The race sometimes is known as the “Run for the Carnations” because a blanket of white carnations, between 300 and 400, is draped over the winner’s shoulders. The flowers, glued on a green velveteen cloth, come from California or Bogotá, Columbia.
Because the race is 1 ½ miles, it’s the longest of the three Triple Crown events. The Belmont Stakes has been staged at three different distances. In 1874, the race was shortened from 1 5/8 miles to the current 1 ½ miles.
In 1890-92 and 1895, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown was cut to 1 ¼ miles, the only times it was the same distance as the Kentucky Derby.
From 1896 through 1925, it was boosted to the original 1 5/8 miles. Since ’26, when Crusader won by a length, the Belmont has been 1 ½ miles.
The giant 300-year-old white pine in the paddock is featured in the Belmont Park logo.
The official Belmont song “Sidewalks of New York” was replaced in 1997 by “New York, New York” made famous by Frank Sinatra. The reason: management believed it would be more familiar to a bigger audience.
Anti-betting legislation was passed in New York State, closing Belmont and canceling the race for two years, 1911-12.
In 1997, track officials added a cast iron horse and jockey 4 feet high in the saddling area. Both are painted the colors of each year’s winner.
In 1998, the Belmont Breeze was made official drink of the race. The main ingredients: whiskey and sherry.
An interesting footnote: Jennie Jerome and her two sisters spent much time in Europe thanks to their father’s wealth. On the Isle of Wight, Jennie met Lord Randolph Churchill. In 1874, they were married at the British Embassy in Paris.
They produced two grandsons for Jerome. The oldest was Prime Minister Winston Churchill.
Look for Longshots in the Belmont Stakes
By GREG MELIKOV
The Belmont Stakes has become a tricky race to handicap lately for several reasons.
While favorites have triumphed about 40 percent during the past 142 races, that hasn’t been the case the last three decades as only six won — 23 percent.
And 15 winners during the past 30 years rewarded backers with double-digit returns – a nifty 50 percent.
Seven of the past dozen winners that scored went off at more than 11-1. Three recently won the Belmont off maiden victories: Da’ Tara in ’08, Jazel in ’06 and Commendable in ’00.
However, five winners went into the race with at least three scores, including ’05 favorite Afleet Alex and ’01 choice Point Given, both coming off Preakness victories.
Since pari-mutuel wagering was adopted 70 years ago in New York, 12 of 31 odds-on Belmont favorites visited the winner’s circle. But it’s no wonder there hasn’t been one since the last Triple Crown winner in ’78 – Affirmed.
During the 21st Century the average odds for the eight winning non-favorites is nearly 19-1 – the same odds that Commendable went off at defeating favored Aptitude by 1 ½ lengths.
During the past 11 years, three of the six largest payoffs in history were recorded. Sarava rewarded backers in ’02 with the highest return at 70 ¼-1. In addition to Birdstone, ’04, fifth all time, Da’ Tara is fourth at 38 ½-1.
The others were Lemon Drop Kid at nearly 30-1 in ’99, Temperance Hill at 53 ½-1 in ’80 and Sherluck at 65-1 in ’61.
Exotic bettors have needed the Kentucky Derby-Preakkness champ to finish second or third to cash tickets.
Of the four exactas with Triple Crown hopefuls finishing second, only the ’04 Belmont paid three figures: While Birdstone returned $74 to win for $2, the exacta with Smarty Jones paid $139. Ah, but the $2 trifecta proved very rewarding: $1,589.
The most lucrative trifecta came in ’99 when Lemon Drop Kid, paying $61.50 on the front end, edged Vision and Verse, who returned $44.40 to place, combined with Charismatic for a $5,343 trifecta.
From ’79 when Spectacular Bid ran third to ’04, six odds-on favorites lost, but five hit the board. Meanwhile, four odds-on choices scored: Swale, ’84 Kentucky winner; A. P. Indy, ’92, who missed the first two Triple Crown legs because of an injury; Thunder Gulch, ’95 Kentucky Derby victor; and Point Given, ’01 Preakness winner.
Some experts say wagering on the Belmont is one of the most difficult races to handicap because of the distance. Some say pay attention to recent performances because horses are more likely to score in top condition.
Some point out the field is usually smaller and the track is wide with sweeping turns so traffic usually isn’t a problem.
Others point out horses that rally from far back don’t usually win and those with good tactical speed stalking just off the pace with enough stamina to accelerate down the stretch prevail.
Pedigree can be an important factor as well since all the horses will have to go farther than ever before. While a surprising number of winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness outrun their breeding, the Belmont is called the true “Test of the Champion.”
Don’t Rely on Horse-for-the-Course Angle in Derby
By GREG MELIKOV
If you’re thinking about the horse-for-the-course angle in the Kentucky Derby, better have something more in your handicapping toolbox.
More than two dozen horses that previously won as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs failed in the Derby. The average finish of about 50 runners with at least one race on the main track was off the board.
However, two colts during the past four years repeated their victories in sophomore stakes at Churchill Downs in the Derby: Street Sense in ’07, who captured the ’06 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Super Saver in ’10, who won the ’09 Kentucky Jockey Club.
More important over the long haul is how horses handle the main track working toward the big dance as most winners during the past decade posted bullet workouts.
Two horses that probably will be longshots have really taken to Churchill Downs. Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who has only raced at the California track, has posted two bullets on less than fast surfaces.
The son of War Chant on Monday breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in the slop. On April 27, he breezed six furlongs on a good surface in 1:13 3/5.
Shackelford, runner-up in the Florida Derby, has recorded two bullet works: 58 4/5 breezing for five furlongs on the fast main track last Saturday and 1:00 1/5 breezing for five furlongs in the slop on April 23.
In addition, the son of Forestry did break his maiden at Churchill Downs, capturing a seven-furlong race.
However, his running style isn’t exactly the way to win the Derby. During the previous 136th renewals only 22 horses went wire to wire. The last time was in ’02 when War Emblem triumphed by four lengths.
Spend a Buck led at every call in ’85 winning by 5 ¼ lengths recording the fourth fastest time for the 1 ¼-contest: 2:00 1/5.
Since ’87, seven horses that had the lead at the eighth pole weren’t the first to hit the wire. However, only Sea Cadet in ’91 failed to hit the board, finishing eighth.
Four managed to run second: Closing Argument, ’05; Cavonnier, ’96; Casual Lies, ’92; and Bet Twice, ’87.
Two horses in Saturday’s Derby that like to come off the pace posted bullets for works last month. Gotham winner Stay Thirsty breezed five furlongs in the slop in a minute on April 24, the quickest of 19 works.
On Sunday, he went five furlongs in the slop in 1:01 4/5, two two-fifths slower than stablemate Uncle Mo, who won the BC Juvenile last year at Churchill Downs.
Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch caught a fast track on April 29 and breezed five furlongs in 59 2/5, sharing the quickest time of 59 runners.
The son of Arch ran once at Churchill Downs back in November, finishing second in his career debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight contest.
Surprisingly, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, the likely lukewarm Derby favorite has confined his workouts to the Palm Meadows training facility in South Florida.
The son of Mineshaft on April 28 cruised five furlongs in 48 2/5, third fastest of six runners.
Dialed In broke his maiden right off the bat in November at Churchill Downs, taking a sprint.
Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders
Scores of upsets in major preps and injuries have muddled my Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders. But here’s my final list from the bottom to the top:
Stay Thirsty: Although the son of Bernardini ran poorly in the Florida Derby, he did defeat Wood Memorial victor Toby’s Corner in the Gotham. On April 24, he breezed five furlongs on as sloppy Churchill Downs main track in a minute, the fastest of 19 runners.
Soldat: The son of War Front didn’t run well in the Florida Derby, but few sophomores have recorded back-to-back victories this year. If the Louisville track comes up sloppy like it did earlier this week, his stock rises considerably. He has won twice at 1 1/8 miles, including the Fountain of Youth and an allowance contest on an off track.
Nehro: While the runner-up in two major preps only broke his maiden in February, the son of Mineshaft has become the buzz horse. With a 20-horse field, I suggest flipping a coin to include him in the exotics.
Pants on Fire: Winner of the Louisiana Derby likes to set the pace or sit just off it. The son of Jump Start could go to the front since some speed horses will be on the sidelines. But it’s not exactly the best running style for this big dance.
Midnight Interlude: Another maiden only winner, but it was the Santa Anita Derby despite a troubled stretch run during which he was steadied off the heels of the pacesetter. However, last SA Derby champ to score in the first Triple Crown event was Sunday Silence in 1989.
Uncle Mo: Instead of giving it the gas in the Wood Memorial heading down the stretch, the son of Indian Charlie came out of the race with a gastrointestinal infection, but managed to finish third. The ‘10 champion 2-year-old won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, where he breezed five furlongs in the slop with a stablemate in 1:01 4/5 on Tuesday, galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 3/5.
Toby’s Corner: The son of Bellamy Road, who won the ’05 Wood by more than 17 lengths, captured the same stakes race by a neck, and has triumphed in four routes. Get that coin out again.
Mucho Macho Man: The gutsy horse will have his shoes glued on, too, after losing one leaving the gate in the Louisiana Derby, but managed a third. After a troubled fourth in the Holy Bull, the son of Macho Uno took the Risen Star. Experience is the best teacher.
Archarcharch: This son of Arch has impressed with two victories in preps while rewarding backers with double-digit payouts. Hi running style and tactical speed makes him a big threat.
Dialed In: Another son of Mineshaft will be the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Horses exiting the Florida Derby, which the colt won, do well in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. One criticism of the lightly-raced colt is he hasn’t worked much between races, but that’s his training technique. He debuted last year with a victory in a sprint at Churchill Downs. But the last horse to win the Derby with only four career starts was Exterminator back in 1918.
Kentucky Derby Jinxes Broken in the Long Run
By GREG MELIKOV
There have been more jinxes associated with the Kentucky Derby than I care to recall. But there have been memorable curses snapped during the 21st Century worth mentioning.
One of the more discussed horse jinxes ended in 2007 when Street Sense became the first 2-year-old champion to capture the Derby since Spectacular Bid in ’79. The son of Street Cry also was the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to smell the roses, snapping the 0-for-23 results.
A training jinx ended last year when Todd Pletcher ended his 0-for-24 streak with Super Saver. Previously, the best his horses finished was second, Invisible Ink in ’01 and Bluegrass Cat in ’06.
The oldest Curse of Churchill Downs dates back to 1882 when Apollo roared down the stretch to capture the eighth Derby. He was the last winner that didn’t run as a 2-year-old.
I’d like to introduce a new jinx that I’m calling The Curse of Major Derby Preps. It’s a four-parter that leaves off the Florida Derby since winners Big Brown, ’08, Barbaro, ’06, triumphed at Louisville.
Smarty Jones was the last Arkansas Derby winner to score at Churchill Downs in ’04, the first since ’83 when Sunny’s Halo did it. Archarcharch attempts the feat this year.
The last Blue Grass Stakes winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in ’91. Brilliant Speed tries to end that losing streak.
Winner of the Wood Memorial has had a double jinx the past couple years: Eskendereya in ’10 and I Want Revenge in ’09 came up injured even before the Derby was staged.
Toby’s Corner is trying to become only the second Wood winner since Pleasant Colony in ’81 to visit the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. The other was Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.
Midnight Interlude is attempting to become the first Santa Anita Derby victor since Sunday Silence in ’89 to take the Kentucky Derby.
Ironically, the last maiden-only winner to smell the roses was Giacomo, who ran fourth in the ’05 Santa Anita Derby, that returned the third highest payoff in history — $102.60.
The son of Holy Bull went to Louisville off five straight defeats, including two seconds and a pair of thirds.
His sire didn’t fare too well in the ’94 Kentucky Derby after taking the Florida Derby. The son of Great Above broke slowly and was carried wide on the first turn, never recovered and ran 12th in the slop to Go for Gin.
Holy Bull was on the sidelined for a spell, but then reeled off five straight victories in graded stakes that earned him top 3-year-old and Horse of the Year honors.
Giacomo was only the second sophomore since Proud Clarion in ’67 to take the Kentucky Derby without a stakes victory.
Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders
Upsets galore in the major preps have played havoc with my Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders. You can count the number of favorites that scored in key preps on one hand. How the 3-year-olds work at Churchill Downs before the first Saturday in May will determine my final standings from the bottom to the top:
The Factor: His displaced palate in the Arkansas Derby doesn’t worry me as much as his pedigree. Dad War Front was a sprinter and The Factor couldn’t even get the lead from the break last time out. However, he’s the only sophomore to take two major preps as the favorite. And he went wire to wire, not exactly the bet running style for Louisville.
Soldat: Another son of War Front came up flat in the Florida Derby, but that doesn’t mean he won’t stand a chance at Churchill Downs. If it comes up sloppy his stock climbs. He does have two victories at 1 1/8 miles, including the Fountain of Youth and an allowance contest on an off track.
Nehro: The runner-up in two major preps only broke his maiden in February. He is the son of Mineshaft. But I suggest getting a coin out to flip.
Pants on Fire: Winner of the Louisiana Derby likes to sit just off the pace. But the son of Jump Start will be in a crowd in a field with speed aplenty. A clean trip often decides races with large fields. And Lady Luck has a say, too. Love the name.
Midnight Interlude: Another maiden only winner, but it was the Santa Anita Derby despite a troubled stretch run during which he was steadied off the heels of the pacesetter. But the last SA Derby champ to score in the first Triple Crown event was Sunday Silence in 1989.
Uncle Mo: The son of Indian Charlie, third in the ’98 Kentucky Derby, had the lead in mid-stretch of the Wood Memorial, but faltered and finished third, possibly because of the diagnosed gastrointestinal infection. Another horse finished third at Aqueduct 38 years ago and rebounded in the Kentucky Derby en route to becoming the 10th Triple Crown champ – Secretariat. When he came up four lengths short at Aqueduct some handicappers questioned whether he had the stamina to go long. Like Uncle Mo, Secretariat’s top route victory had been 1 1/16 miles until the Kentucky Derby. Will history repeat?
Toby’s Corner: Will this be another case of like father, life son? His dad Bellamy Road romped in the ’05 Wood by more than 17 lengths and then ran seventh at Louisville. The son won his second stakes at Aqueduct by a neck and has four scores in routes. You make the call.
Mucho Macho Man: The if-you-don’t-succeed-at-first-horse tried again tossed a shoe leaving the gate in the Louisiana Derby, but managed a fourth. After a troubled fourth in the Holy Bull, the son of Macho Uno captured the Risen Star. Could be worth a wager at attractive odds.
Archarcharch: This son of Arch returned double-digit payoffs in two preps and continues to impress. Tactical speed puts him in the hunt. He ran the last three furlongs of the Arkansas Derby in 37 2/5, making up more than two lengths in deep stretch.
Dialed In: This son of Mineshaft, by process of elimination, will be the lukewarm choice in the Kentucky Derby. Horses coming out of Gulfstream Park’s showcase stakes race do well at Churchill Downs. He rates a good chance of becoming the third winner in the past six years of repeating on the first Saturday in May.
$1 Million Louisiana Derby Attracts a Full Field
By GREG MELIKOV
There are several talented 3-year-olds going in the 98th Louisiana Derby that must prove themselves worthy of continuing on the Road to the Roses.
The uncoupled trainees of Neil Howard figure to give morning line 9-5 favorite Much Macho Man the most trouble.
Wilkinson has been freshened since his head victory over Pants on Fire in the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 22. Garret Gomez retains the mount on the son of Lemon Drop Kid, 8-1, who drew post 10 in the 13-horse field.
Howard also sends out Machen, fourth to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star on Feb. 19 after winning his first two starts. The son of Distorted Humor rallied powerfully on the far turn of 1 1/16-mile contest, but failed to sustain his drive in the stretch.
Machen, the early 7-2 second choice, picks up the services of Edgar Prado and will break from post 7.
“Machen is a nice, laid back kind of horse and nothing seems to bother him, but Wilkinson — I think he likes to lay awake at night thinking, ‘What can I do tomorrow to mess things up for myself?’ ” Howard said.
There is no one in the $1 million stakes race with more than two victories.
The Oaklawn Park-based Elite Alex, the 6-1 morning line third choice was a late addition to the Louisiana Derby field after being scratched from the Rebel because he drew post 10. Unfortunately, the Tim Ritchey charge winds up in post 12 at Fair Grounds, with a long run to the first turn of the 1 1/8-mile contest.
Rajiv Maragh, who gained the mount on Mucho Macho Man after Eibar Coa was seriously injured in a spill at Gulfstream Park, will be back in the saddle when the colt breaks from post 5.
He made his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull States on Jan. 30 at his Gulfstream Park base, where he was cutting back a one-turn mile.
After being bumped hard in the opening strides, Mucho Macho Man moved up to contest the quick pace and tired late to finish fourth behind Dialed In.
The Kathy Ritvo trainee bounced back to capture the Risen Star by 1 ½ lengths with the blinkers taken off to help him relax early.
Neither third-place finisher Rogue Romance, off the Kentucky Derby Trail with an injury, or runner-up Santiva, awaiting the April 16 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be in the 13-horse field on Saturday.
It’s worth noting that Louisiana tracks have not played a significant role in the past 15 Kentucky Derby winners. Several high-profile horses have triumphed recently in the Louisiana Derby and then faltered in the Derby: High Limit, Circular Quay, Pyro, Friesan Fire and Mission Impazible.
In addition, Risen Star winners Dollar Bill (2001) and Lawyer Ron (’06) were also well-backed in the Derby but ran poorly.
As for the Louisiana Derby, only two winners scored in Louisville. Grindstone did it in ’96 while the filly Black Gold was victorious in ’24.
Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders
Last year’s initial rankings of my Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders included all three winners of Triple Crown races from Derby winning Super Saver at No. 10 to Preakness champ Lookin’ at Lucky at No. 2. It also rated Belmont victor Drosselmeyer at No. 9. So here we go again from the bottom to the top:
Dialed In: The Holy Bull Stakes winner still has plenty of backers despite running second in a paceless allowance race. The son of Mineshaft should have something to run at in the Florida Derby, which has produced the Kentucky Derby champ twice during the past five years.
Brethren: The son of Distorted Humor led most of the way in the Tampa Bay Derby, but the Sam F. Davis winner gave it up in the stretch and finished third. He heads south to Gulfstream Park where he clashes with an array of sophomores on the Road to the Roses in the $1 million Florida Derby that should determine a top contender on the first Saturday in May in Louisville.
Watch Me Go: This colt lived up to his name winning the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck and returning $89.40 on the front end. Either the Illinois Derby or Florida Derby will tell the tale of this son of West Acre.
Anthony’s Cross: The Robert B. Lewis Stakes victor is headed to the Santa Anita Derby after his second route triumph. The son of Indian Charlie has improved steadily on the Left Coast since debuting at Saratoga last summer and running fourth in a maiden special weight sprint.
Stay Thirsty: The Gotham winner departs Aqueduct and heads south to Gulfstream Park for its premier event on April 3. The son of Bernardini sidesteps the Wood Memorial and avoids Uncle Mo, who he chased in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ending up fifth.
Premier Pegasus: The son of Fusaichi Pegasus is Top Gun in the West off his daunting win in the San Felipe by 7 ¾ lengths covering the 1 1/16 mile on Santa Anita’s main track in a swift 1:41 1/5. He will face a bunch in the Santa Anita Derby.
The Factor: This speed burner romped in the Rebel Stakes wire to wire covering the 1 1/16 miles in a snappy 1:42. The son of War Front has won three straight, including two sprints at Santa Anita. But he was most impressive in his first two-turn try, winning by 6 ¼ lengths at Oaklawn Park.
Mucho Macho Man: The if-you-don’t-succeed-at-first-horse tried again and won the Risen Star over a pretty good field. The son of Macho Uno posted his first victory since breaking his maiden last year, making up for a troubled fourth in the Holy Bull. He’s the likely favorite in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby that has attracted a full field.
Soldat: The multi-racing-surface horse loves Gulfstream and will be favored in the Florida Derby since he captured the Fountain of Youth. Another son of sprint champion War Front has posted a 3-4-0 record in seven outings, including two victories at 1 1/8 miles on dirt.
Uncle Mo: Last year’s 2-year-old champion and the early Kentucky Derby favorite deserves to be No. 1 until he gets knocked off. He won the Timely Writer fairly easily despite being bumped at the break. The 1:36 2/5 for the mile against an outclassed small field wasn’t bad. Next stop: Aqueduct on April 9 for the Wood Memorial, with the purse just boosted to $1 million.
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