Here’s Another Handicapping Tool Worth Trying
By GREG MELIKOV
I’m making an addition to my handicapping toolbox after an experiment since late summer produced quite a few winners.
It’s one of the helpful features of Brisnet.com past performances listed on the front of each race – the figure beneath “SPEED.” The number is the average winning speed at the distance during a particular track’s meeting.
From time to time I adjust my toolbox. This is just another way to consider speed when handicapping races no matter the track. I still include my favorites: class, horses for courses, successful jockey-trainer combos, running styles and racing patterns.
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How Santa Anita’s New Main Track Is Playing
By GREG MELIKOV
What a difference racing surfaces make. During the 1990s six track records were set on Santa Anita‘s main dirt strip from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
Things have changed since synthetic surfaces were installed last year. Here’s a look at how three of the seven distances for main track Breeders’ Cup races compare covering the past three meetings at Santa Anita.
At the ’07 Oak Tree meeting Sept. 26-Nov. 4 over the Cushion Track, 31 percent of 67 winners at six furlongs went wire to wire, according to Brisnet.com.
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The ‘B’ Words: Big Brown and the Buzz Horse
By GREG MELIKOV
The A Team for the Belmont Stakes, according to the so-called racing experts, is comprised of Big Brown and Casino Drive. Both are undefeated Belmont Stakes entries.
Big Brown already has proved he’s the crème de la crème of the 3-year-old crop, winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The son of Boundary has scored two impressive victories from extremely outside posts.
Meanwhile, the so-called buzz horse, Casino Drive, has raced just twice, once in Japan last year. He won the Peter Pan Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths at Belmont Park on May 10, but didn’t beat much of a field.
So how do the two top Belmont Stakes contenders shape up?
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How Monmouth Played in 2007 Dirt, Turf Routes
By GREG MELIKOV
Nine of the 11 Breeders’ Cup races during the two-day $23 million spectacular that begins Oct. 26 at Monmouth Park are routes, including four on the turf.
During this year’s regular 62nd meeting, the longer contests weren’t dominated by speed like sprints, but front-runners did well.
In 80 races at one mile, victorious wire-to-wire horses numbered 25 percent. Winners leading at every call of 78 contests at a mile and 70 yards did better — 35 percent.
“I don’t know how much the summer condition plays in October because we have never run this late on this strip in a year,” said Paul Grimm, editor of the Oceanport Racing Report (www.oceanportracingreport.com). “I’m not aware whether the track management will alter the main track to add dirt or not.
“If the track becomes deeper I would have to think that would negate some speed, but we will have to wait and see. The earlier cards (Wednesday and Thursday) during the special four-day meet (Oct. 24-27) before Friday and Saturday should give us an indication.”
As for the turf course, “it was redone in ’06,” Grimm pointed out. “A new drainage system and base with new sod was installed along with a new innovative five-furlong turf chute. Depending on who you talk to the grass does or doesn’t drain any better, but the strip is seven furlongs and the turns are tight.”
More inside information: “I have been through all the charts for 2007,” he said. “In mile grass races, outside posts are at a big disadvantage. There were a couple of new course records at this meet (including 1 3/8 miles, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf distance on Oct. 27), but most were broken last year as the new grass was faster than the old surface.
“Although when they run the Monmouth meet the heat can tend to bake the course. It gets very firm if we don’t get rain, but will play more honest than the dirt as far as speed is concerned.
“The grass held up extremely well and stayed green all summer. They managed to use the entire course with the portable rail so it did not get abused and was actually in very good condition at the end of the meet although we did finish a few weeks earlier this year.”
Grimm ought to know. “I have worked on this course when I was a college student so I have a pretty good feel for its condition.”
During this year’s meeting, only 17 percent of winners in 108 turf routes led from start to finish. The best place to be: inside.
“English Channel and Better Talk Now have been successful over this course and the American contingent will probably have an advantage here especially if the turf is firm,” Grimm said.
On July 7, English Channel won the Grade 1 United Nations at 1 3/8 miles on the grass by a length over Honey Ryder while Better Talk Now finished third another two lengths back in third.
Honey Ryder most likely will go in the BC Filly & Turf. Top contenders in the 1 ½-mile BC Turf are English Channel, 2 for 2 at Monmouth, and Better Talk Now, 1-1-1 in 4 outings at the track.
Two other likely contenders have hit the board on the Monmouth grass: Red Giant, winner by a nose in the one-mile Restoration Stakes on June 17, and 9-year-old The Tin Man, second in a race several years back.
“Monmouth will use the one mile dirt course and the seven-eighths grass course for Breeders’ Cup racing,” he added. “I don’t expect to see the five-furlong turf chute used on BC days, but maybe on Wednesday and Thursday.”
There were only 21 sprints on the grass during the regular meeting, with 33 percent of winners leading all the way.
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Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
Tags: Breeders’ Cup, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, Monmouth Park
Two Key Stakes Will Impact the Breeders’ Cup Classic
By GREG MELIKOV
The Road to the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Thoroughbred World Championships in Oceanport, N.J., goes through several towns, among them Florence, Ky., and Elmont, N.Y.
On Saturday, the 14th Kentucky Cup Day of Champions at Turfway Park features five stakes worth $825,000 that will likely impact an equal number of Breeders’ Cup races next month at Monmouth Park.
But the headliner is the $350,000 Kentucky Cup Classic, which has served as a key prep for a half-dozen horses that hit the board in the Breeders’ Cup Classic from ’98 through ’06. However, five Kentucky Cup Classic winners had to settle for second or third-place money.
Ironically, Cat Thief, third in the ’99 Kentucky Cup Classic, won the big one. I was at Gulfstream Park eight years ago when Pat Day guided the son of Storm Cat to victory despite a bumpy ride to the finish line 1 ¼ lengths in front in the 16th Breeders’ Cup Classic. The winner, eighth choice among the 14 entries, returned a generous $41.20.
The main attraction in this year’s Kentucky Cup Classic is Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense. Carl Nafzger finally made it official after considering several races, including the 89th running of the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont on Sunday.
Nafzger decided he’d rather ship the son of Street Cry the shorter distance between Churchill Downs and Turfway instead of to Belmont. And, the trainer added, he preferred Street Sense going 1 1/8 miles instead of 1 ¼ miles.
Street Sense has been breezing well at the Louisville track. On Sept. 16, he went four furlongs in 48 3/5. Four days later, he traveled five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Working the Travers winner twice in four days isn’t unusual for his stable, Nafzger told Brisnet.com. “I always do that when I want a good work in and sharpen him up. We just wanted a good work and he worked like clockwork…”
His main opposition in a likely small field is Hard Spin, winner of the King’s Bishop at seven furlongs on the Travers undercard. However, the son of Danzig has finished behind Street Sense twice in dirt routes — the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
At Delaware Park on Sunday, Larry Jones’ trainee breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. Hard Spun captured the Lane’s End at Turfway six months ago in his only outing on a synthetic surface.
Meanwhile, Street Sense hasn’t won in two tries, finishing second and third on Keeneland’s Polytrack as a juvenile and a sophomore. But both preps preceded victories in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and this year’s Run for the Roses Derby.
Remember that Street Sense has never finished out of the money in 11 starts, going 6-3-2 and earning more than $4 million.
On Sunday at Belmont Park, there are four stakes worth more than $2.3 million that will send even more hopefuls to the Breeders’ Cup.
The feature attraction is the $750,000 Gold Cup that will pit two of trainer Todd Pletcher’s best: Lawyer Ron, the nation’s top older handicap horse with back-to-back triumphs in Saratoga’s Whitney and Woodward, and Curlin, victorious in the Preakness Stakes while hitting the board in the other two legs of the Triple Crown.
Among those hoping to pull an upset are Political Force, winner of the Suburban who later ran fifth in the Woodward; Sun King, second in the Woodward; and Brother Bobby, runner-up in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Iselin Breeders’ Cup Stakes.
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Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
Tags: Breeders’ Cup, Breeders Cup Classic, Monmouth Park
Horses that will miss the 2007 Breeder’s Cup
The 2007 Breeder’s Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is on October 26-27.
However, with the latest horse racing warfare merely a few weeks away, it seems there are quite a few horses who will miss horse racing’s biggest event yet.
The 2007 Breeder’s Cup World Thoroughbred Championships will be at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey to hold a new two-day event for the very first time. As always, the two-day event will be concluded by the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic with a $5 million purse at stake. It will feature the top three-year-old thoroughbreds from all over the world.
One of which that will miss the 2007 Breeder’s Cup is Maimonides, the $4.6 million son of Vindication. Maimonides finished third in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga before coming out with bucked shins.
”He’ll definitely miss the Breeder’s Cup, but he can still get some 2-year-old action,” racing manager Sobhy Sonbol said. ”He’ll need three to four weeks to get over his shins and start back training and get ready for the winter.”
Another colt who’ll be staying home on October 26 and 27 is the impressive winner of the $400,000 Del Mar Mile, Crossing the Line. The colt still needs to be supplemented to the Breeder’s Cup program for $300,000.
Who will win the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic? Bodog has the odds.
Lawyer Ron 7/2
Rags to Riches 20/1
Street Sense 4/1
Visit OddsHQ for more horse race betting odds and the best lines in some of the biggest sporting events today.
2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic Monmouth Park
Pacific Classic Field at Del Mar Features Lava Man, The King of California Tracks
By GREG MELIKOV
Lava Man has gone where no horse has gone before on the Left Coast. Last year he became the first thoroughbred to win the Golden State’s Big 3 stakes in the same year.
This year the son of Slew City Slew is attempting to record his own version of Can You Top This – the popular radio show (1940-54) where three funny men attempted to top jokes offered on a variety of subjects from the studio audience.
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Whitney Handicap 2007: All in the Saratoga Family for Decades
By GREG MELIKOV
The 2007 Whitney Handicap isn’t very old compared to other Saratoga stakes races like the Travers. When Black Mania won the inaugural in 1928, Petee-Wrack captured the 64 th Travers.
But the Whitney is historic in its own right, named for a family whose horses have won every major race in the United States. Harry Payne Whitney’s Regret was the first filly to capture the Kentucky Derby in ’15 and earned Horse of the Year honors.
Read full story: "Whitney Handicap 2007: All in the Saratoga Family for Decades"...
Saratoga: The Spa and Graveyard of Champions
By GREG MELIKOV
An American boxing champion that became a congressman, a lawyer who made a fortune on Wall Street, the grandfather of Winston Churchill and a horseman combined to stage the first national meeting nearly 144 years ago.
It was held as an experiment. Well, the experiment, four days at Saratoga Raceway that began Aug. 3, 1863, was a huge success. So much so that the quartet decided to expand the following year and move across the street to construct a
track to accommodate larger crowds.
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How the 139th Belmont Stakes Shapes Up
By GREG MELIKOV
Belmont Stakes, the third and oldest jewel of the Triple Crown at Belmont Park in New York appears to be a two-horse race between Curlin and Hard Spun.
The absence of Street Sense has ushered in a couple more challengers, but they shouldn’t alter the results. Here’s a look at the horses and how they should finish in the 139th Belmont…
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