Belmont: Historic Racetrack, Stakes Race
BY GREG MELIKOV
Flamboyant financier Leonard W. Jerome and well-heeled friends, including banker August Belmont Sr., built a racetrack in the Bronx that opened on Sept. 25, 1866.
The crowd at Jerome Park, named for its founder, included Gen. Ulysses S. Grant and members of New York’s fashionable society. It was the first track to attract women in large numbers. Even the horses were chic – ribbons of owners’ colors were braided into their manes and tails.
On opening day, Jerome’s horse Kentucky visited the winner’s circle and the owner hoisted 12-year-old daughter Jennie on his shoulders.
Jerome and Belmont also founded the American Jockey Club, which later evolved into the Jockey Club. It was said of the pair at the time, “People like Belmont and Jerome do not enter society, they create it as they go along.”
Jerome Park was an English-style track that required runners to negotiate three turns because of a dip in mid-backstretch while racing clockwise.
On June 19, 1867, a stakes named for Jerome’s closest friend was first staged. The Belmont went to the filly Ruthless, victorious over three horses.
When the track closed 22 years later to make way for a reservoir needed by the New York City water supply system, the Belmont Stakes moved in 1890 to Morris Park in the Bronx. The winner: Burlington over eight challengers.
In 1905, the race was shifted to a new track in Elmont, N.Y., built by several business partners including August Belmont II. The winner: Tanya, a filly that defeated six rivals.
Since then the race has been staged at Belmont Park except for 1963-67 when it was held at Aqueduct while the track was being rebuilt.
Belmont traditions have come and gone over the years. One custom lost to modern times is the winner’s colors being painted on the picket fence of Esposito’s Tavern near the track until it became a church.
In 1921, Grey Lag won the first Belmont run counter-clockwise.
The race sometimes is known as the “Run for the Carnations” because a blanket of white carnations, between 300 and 400, is draped over the winner’s shoulders. The flowers, glued on a green velveteen cloth, come from California or Bogotá, Columbia.
Because the race is 1 ½ miles, it’s the longest of the three Triple Crown events. The Belmont Stakes has been staged at three different distances. In 1874, the race was shortened from 1 5/8 miles to the current 1 ½ miles.
In 1890-92 and 1895, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown was cut to 1 ¼ miles, the only times it was the same distance as the Kentucky Derby.
From 1896 through 1925, it was boosted to the original 1 5/8 miles. Since ’26, when Crusader won by a length, the Belmont has been 1 ½ miles.
The giant 300-year-old white pine in the paddock is featured in the Belmont Park logo.
The official Belmont song “Sidewalks of New York” was replaced in 1997 by “New York, New York” made famous by Frank Sinatra. The reason: management believed it would be more familiar to a bigger audience.
Anti-betting legislation was passed in New York State, closing Belmont and canceling the race for two years, 1911-12.
In 1997, track officials added a cast iron horse and jockey 4 feet high in the saddling area. Both are painted the colors of each year’s winner.
In 1998, the Belmont Breeze was made official drink of the race. The main ingredients: whiskey and sherry.
An interesting footnote: Jennie Jerome and her two sisters spent much time in Europe thanks to their father’s wealth. On the Isle of Wight, Jennie met Lord Randolph Churchill. In 1874, they were married at the British Embassy in Paris.
They produced two grandsons for Jerome. The oldest was Prime Minister Winston Churchill.
Look for Longshots in the Belmont Stakes
By GREG MELIKOV
The Belmont Stakes has become a tricky race to handicap lately for several reasons.
While favorites have triumphed about 40 percent during the past 142 races, that hasn’t been the case the last three decades as only six won — 23 percent.
And 15 winners during the past 30 years rewarded backers with double-digit returns – a nifty 50 percent.
Seven of the past dozen winners that scored went off at more than 11-1. Three recently won the Belmont off maiden victories: Da’ Tara in ’08, Jazel in ’06 and Commendable in ’00.
However, five winners went into the race with at least three scores, including ’05 favorite Afleet Alex and ’01 choice Point Given, both coming off Preakness victories.
Since pari-mutuel wagering was adopted 70 years ago in New York, 12 of 31 odds-on Belmont favorites visited the winner’s circle. But it’s no wonder there hasn’t been one since the last Triple Crown winner in ’78 – Affirmed.
During the 21st Century the average odds for the eight winning non-favorites is nearly 19-1 – the same odds that Commendable went off at defeating favored Aptitude by 1 ½ lengths.
During the past 11 years, three of the six largest payoffs in history were recorded. Sarava rewarded backers in ’02 with the highest return at 70 ¼-1. In addition to Birdstone, ’04, fifth all time, Da’ Tara is fourth at 38 ½-1.
The others were Lemon Drop Kid at nearly 30-1 in ’99, Temperance Hill at 53 ½-1 in ’80 and Sherluck at 65-1 in ’61.
Exotic bettors have needed the Kentucky Derby-Preakkness champ to finish second or third to cash tickets.
Of the four exactas with Triple Crown hopefuls finishing second, only the ’04 Belmont paid three figures: While Birdstone returned $74 to win for $2, the exacta with Smarty Jones paid $139. Ah, but the $2 trifecta proved very rewarding: $1,589.
The most lucrative trifecta came in ’99 when Lemon Drop Kid, paying $61.50 on the front end, edged Vision and Verse, who returned $44.40 to place, combined with Charismatic for a $5,343 trifecta.
From ’79 when Spectacular Bid ran third to ’04, six odds-on favorites lost, but five hit the board. Meanwhile, four odds-on choices scored: Swale, ’84 Kentucky winner; A. P. Indy, ’92, who missed the first two Triple Crown legs because of an injury; Thunder Gulch, ’95 Kentucky Derby victor; and Point Given, ’01 Preakness winner.
Some experts say wagering on the Belmont is one of the most difficult races to handicap because of the distance. Some say pay attention to recent performances because horses are more likely to score in top condition.
Some point out the field is usually smaller and the track is wide with sweeping turns so traffic usually isn’t a problem.
Others point out horses that rally from far back don’t usually win and those with good tactical speed stalking just off the pace with enough stamina to accelerate down the stretch prevail.
Pedigree can be an important factor as well since all the horses will have to go farther than ever before. While a surprising number of winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness outrun their breeding, the Belmont is called the true “Test of the Champion.”
The 136th Preakness: Derby Runners Hold Edge
By GREG MELIKOV
This is the third time during the past two decades that the Preakness has a full field – 14 horses going 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico on Saturday.
Both times the favorites in the second leg of the Triple Crown bounced back from defeats in the Kentucky Derby. Back in 1992, Pine Bluff, who finished off the board in the Derby, won the Preakness by three-quarters of a length.
In ’05 Afleet Alex captured the Preakness by 4 ¾ lengths after finishing third at Churchill Downs. He ran third to longshot Giacomo in the Derby. Ironically, Giacomo finished third at Pimlico.
The number of Derby horses in the Preakness has averaged a bit more than five the past 25 years. This go-round there is five again, including Derby winner Animal Kingdom, the 2-1 morning line favorite that breaks from post 11.
The others include defeated Derby favorite Dialed In who drew post 10 and was made the early 9-2 second choice.
The son of Mineshaft was squeezed back at the start of the Derby and trailed the 19-horse field — 20 lengths behind Shackleford.
The Nick Zito trainee closed strongly to finish eighth, beaten less than eight lengths covering the final half-mile in an amazing 47 seconds.
“You just can’t win in those situations, but he came with his run,” Zito said. “It was probably the best eighth-place finish in Kentucky Derby history.
“They ran the slowest first three-quarters in the Derby since 1947 and my horse ran the second fastest (final) half-mile. “Only Secretariat ran a faster final half (46 2/5). He (Dialed In) was not a short horse. We are going to keep doing what we’ve been doing with him when he was in Florida.”
If Dialed In can rebound and triumph, he would canter away with big bucks from the new Preakness 5.5 bonus program. Because he captured the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby this season at Gulfstream Park, he would rake in a grand total of $6.1 million.
Dialed In would earn the $600,000 winner’s share of the $1 million Preakness purse, owner Robert LaPenta would collect $5 million and Zito would receive $500,000 as the winning trainer.
I’m going to use several Derby horses in exotic wagers, especially the lightly raced Animal Kingdom, who is only racing for the sixth time. It appears the son of Leroidesanimous can run on any surface.
I’m including Dialed In because I recall Lookin’ at Lucky had a not-so-good trip in last year’s Derby, finishing sixth, but won the Preakness.
Shackleford, who led most of the way in this year’s Derby before finishing fourth, will be on some exotic tickets. That’s because the son of Forestry, who breaks from post 5 and is 12-1 in the early odds, reminds me of Louis Quatorze.
The front-running son of Sovereign Dancer finished 16th to Grindstone in the ’96 Derby. But in the Preakness he led at every call. I had him to win. He was 8 ½-1.
Third in the Derby, Mucho Macho Man seldom runs a bad race, hitting the board eight times in nine outings. The son of Macho Uno is 6-1 and breaks from post 9.
Derby Runners Have a Leg Up in Preakness
By GREG MELIKOV
Horses exiting the Kentucky Derby have a leg up in the Preakness. A remarkable 23 of the past 26 Derby runners captured the second leg of the Triple Crown.
The exceptions came during the 21st Century: Rachel Alexandra, ’09; Bernardini, ’06; and Red Bullet, ’00.
Four Derby champs the past decade were successful at Pimlico: Big Brown, ’08; Smarty Jones, ’04; Funny Cide, ’03; and War Emblem, ’02. Two others ran second: Mine That Bird ’09 and Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.
Three others that failed at Churchill Downs during the same period triumphed in the Preakness: Curlin, ’07; Afleet Alex, ’05; and Point Given, ’01.
Horses that skipped the Derby en route to Pimlico Preakness had their best showing during the early ’80s. Three horses that bypassed Louisville captured the Preakness: Deputed Testimony, ’83; Alomas’s Ruler, ’82; and Codex, ’80.
Preakness favorites haven’t let down the betting public during the past decade, winning seven times, including five that exited the Derby.
Meanwhile, double-digit winners have been few and far between – only 10 since ’75 when the longest shot in history, Master Derby, returned $40 on the front end. The last was Bernardini, who rewarded backers with $27.80 for $2.
Among those 3-year-olds confirmed for the Preakness are Derby winner Animal Kingdom, third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man and beaten favorite Dialed In, who ran eighth. Shackleford, fourth, and Santiva, sixth, are possible.
In addition, there could be as many as nine newcomers in the field limited to 14 starters on May 21.
My betting formula for the Preakness includes some of the usual handicapping tools: form, race conditions, connections, etc.
First and foremost, as far as I’m concerned, any contender should exhibit form, plus necessary morning workouts since the last outing.
For example, 3-year-olds that haven’t raced in more than 30 days should show a work at Pimlico and ample evidence they have a history of performing well off layoffs.
It’s a good idea to visualize how the Preakness will be run: who the front-runners will be, what contenders will be stalking and which runners have the best chance of closing.
One myth perpetuated over the years ballyhoos Pimlico as a speed-favoring surface with sharp turns that favor front-running horses. Actually, the turns are almost identical to Churchill Downs.
However, keep in mind horses in the lead turning for home have the edge since the stretch is 168 feet shorter that Churchill Downs’ 1,320 feet.
The largest winning margin in the Preakness came seven years ago when Smarty Jones cruised to an 11 ½-length victory, besting Funny Cide’s record of 9 ¾ lengths.
Ten lengths was the winning margin in the inaugural Preakness in 1873. The aptly named Survivor set that record.
Since the ’90s, I’ve wagered on several winners of the Preakness who disappointed in the Derby: Hansel, ’91, who also won the Belmont; Timber Country, ’95; Louis Quatorze, ’96, who led at every call; Point Given, who also captured the ’01 Belmont; and Afleet Alex, who duplicated that feat in ’05.
Greg Melikov’s Horses to Watch
Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won seven times, finished second five times and ran third once since April 9. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.
ARLINGTON PARK
Tajaaweed: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, split rivals entering stretch, rallied from fifth working way inside to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths at a mile on the turf May 8; ran final quarter in 23 seconds.
Rose Mountain; Tracked leaders 3 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, shifted outside in stretch, closed fast to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on May 7; ran final quarter in 22 4/5.
ATLANTIC CITY
Allrightsreserved: Broke alertly, led by a half-length after a half-mile, increased margin to six lengths in stretch and won handily by 6 ½ lengths at a mile on a good surface March 22 at PARX. (Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, rallied five wide passing the quarter pole, led by a head in upper stretch and kicked clear to win by 3 ¼ lengths at a mile and 40 yards on the turf May. 3.)
BELMONT
Latin Rocks: Broke well, went to the front, spared briefly with rival, led by two lengths after a half-mile, increased margin to 5 ½ lengths in stretch and won by 10 ¼ lengths in a hand ride covering six furlongs in 1:10 1/5 on May 11.
Power Dreams: Raced eighth early, dropped to ninth and last more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, swung four wide into the stretch, rallied from sixth to make up 2 ¾ lengths and gained second by a nose at a mile on a yielding turf course April 29; ran final quarter in 24 ¾.
Mosquito: Raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, advanced outside to fifth in stretch, bumped late with rival, made up two lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on the turf April 10; ran final quarter in 24 2/5 at Tampa Bay Downs. (Raced 3 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, fought his way to front by a head in upper stretch and finished second by 1 ½ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on a yielding turf course May 5.)
Opus A: Tracked pace two lengths behind in hired after a half-mile, grabbed lead after six furlongs, increased margin to two lengths in stretch, yielded lead with 70 yards to go and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on April 6 at Aqueduct. (Went to the front inside, led 1 ½ lengths after a half-mile and held on in stretch to finish second by 1 ½ lengths at a mile on May 5.)
Bad Debt: Raced 7 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied three into stretch to gain lead by two lengths and won by 2 ¾ lengths a 1 1/16 miles on March 13 at Gulfstream. (Chased pace five lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied three wide into stretch and won by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on the turf April 9 at Gulfstream.)
CALDER
Madness n’ Mayhem: Broke slowly, raced 4 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on a good turf course May 8; ran final quarter in 23 3/5.
Callmethesqueeze: Broke eighth and last, bumped and checked, trailed by more than 11 lengths after a half-mile, swung out in fourth for stretch run, rallied to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a nose at 1 1/16 miles on a sealed sloppy surface May 5. (Raced 14 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run, rallied from sixth to make up more than seven lengths and won by a length at a mile on the turf May 15.)
Kuggerand: Raced more than six lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, angled outside leaders for stretch run, rallied to make up four lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 25.
For Terina: Steadied into first turn, raced 12 and last more than nine lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run and gained third by 1 ¼ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on April 17 at Gulfstream. (Raced seventh and last more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced four wide around far turn, rallied from third in stretch to draw off and win by 2 ¾ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on sealed sloppy surface taken off turf May 6.)
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Miss Dixie Rose: Raced more than 5 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, swung seven wide for drive, rallied in stretch from seventh to make up nearly four lengths and finished third beaten a neck and a half-length at six furlongs on May 4; ran final quarter in 24 1/5.
Prime Speed: Raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up more than 4 ¼ lengths and finished fourth beaten a nose and two necks at six furlongs on April 30; ran final quarter in 23 3/5.
DELAWARE PARK
Courting Wisdom: Exchanged contact with third-place finisher leaving gate, steadied nearing turn, raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, eased six wide into stretch losing ground and rallied to gain second by a nose at six furlongs on May 9.
Mr. McClain: Broke outward, raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, came seven wide out of the turn losing ground, rallied to make up 7 ¼ lengths in stretch and gained second by 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on March 24 at Oaklawn Park; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.
HOLLYWOOD PARK
Clue Me In: Raced four lengths behind in fifth after half-mile, split horses on the turn and rallied outside from fourth in stretch to gain second by a length at six furlongs on May 5.
Zees Chris: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, swung out for the drive, rallied to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on April 21.
Ultra Blend: Raced fourth and last a head and 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide to gain lead in stretch by 1 ½ lengths and won by 1 ¼ lengths at a mile on Feb. 26 at Santa Anita. (Bobbled at break, raced more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, swung four wide into stretch, rallied from third to win by a length at 7 ½ furlongs on April 23.)
Crisis of Spirit: Raced more than two lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied four wide into stretch and finished third beaten three-quarters of a length for place at seven furlongs on Feb. 18 at Santa Anita. (Prompted pace a half-length behind in second after a half-mile, couldn’t close gap in stretch and finished second by 4 ½ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on April 22.)
KEENELAND
Keertana: Broke ninth and last, trailed by more than 9 ½ lengths after a half-mile, angled out in stretch and rallied to gain third by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on the turf March 12 at Tampa Bay Downs; ran final eighth in 11 3/5. (Raced 10 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, swung six wide entering stretch, rallied from third to win by 1 ¼ lengths at 1 ½ miles on a yielding turf course April 28.)
MONMOUTH
Sweet N Sour Nina: Raced seven lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came three wide into stretch, rallied to make up nearly three lengths and finished second beaten a nose at a mile and 70 yards on May 15.
PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)
Heritage Hall: Broke slowly, raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind seventh and last after a half-mile, rallied wide in stretch to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths and finished third beaten a neck and a nose at 6 ½ furlongs on May 8.
Pluracity: Raced 3 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch, rallied between rivals to make up 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on April 23.
Skattle Band: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up three lengths and finished second beaten a length at a mile and 70 yards on a good surface April 9.
Suitable Attire: Lunged at break, off a bit slowly, tracked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, came out in stretch but couldn’t muster rally and finished third at a mile on Feb. 25 at Santa Anita. (Raced six lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came out in stretch and finished third beaten a head for second at seven furlongs on March 19 at Santa Anita.)
Surprise Storm: Raced three lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied around rivals in stretch and gained second by 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on March 9.
PIMLICO
Gilhooley’s Super: Pinched back at start, tracked pace in third more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, steadied in traffic on turn, closed gamely in stretch to make up two lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on May 7.
Sillium: Raced 17 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, saved ground on far turn making big middle move, rallied to fourth in stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished second by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course April 22.
TURF PARADISE
Brookton: Dueled with winner through deep stretch and finished second by a length at six furlongs on April 25. (Broke alertly, went to the front, led by a half-length after a half-mile and drew clear in stretch to win by 4 ¾ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on May 7.)
WOODBINE
Always Wildcatin’: Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied five wide in stretch to make up more than two lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on May 6; ran final quarter in 23 4/5.
Sailin Cailin: Raced more than five lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, angled out in stretch and made up nearly two lengths at 5 ½ furlongs to gain third by a half-length April 22.
Church View: Raced seventh and last more than 5 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, angled widest turning for home, rallied to make up 2 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at five furlongs on April 10. (Raced three lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied from third in stretch, but was outfinished and ran second by a half-length at seven furlongs on April 29.)
Silver Pizzazz: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile and rallied in stretch to gain third beaten a head for second at five furlongs on April 10. (Raced third early, dropped to fourth 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch and finished second beaten a nose at seven furlongs on April 29.)
Don’t Rely on Horse-for-the-Course Angle in Derby
By GREG MELIKOV
If you’re thinking about the horse-for-the-course angle in the Kentucky Derby, better have something more in your handicapping toolbox.
More than two dozen horses that previously won as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs failed in the Derby. The average finish of about 50 runners with at least one race on the main track was off the board.
However, two colts during the past four years repeated their victories in sophomore stakes at Churchill Downs in the Derby: Street Sense in ’07, who captured the ’06 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Super Saver in ’10, who won the ’09 Kentucky Jockey Club.
More important over the long haul is how horses handle the main track working toward the big dance as most winners during the past decade posted bullet workouts.
Two horses that probably will be longshots have really taken to Churchill Downs. Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who has only raced at the California track, has posted two bullets on less than fast surfaces.
The son of War Chant on Monday breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in the slop. On April 27, he breezed six furlongs on a good surface in 1:13 3/5.
Shackelford, runner-up in the Florida Derby, has recorded two bullet works: 58 4/5 breezing for five furlongs on the fast main track last Saturday and 1:00 1/5 breezing for five furlongs in the slop on April 23.
In addition, the son of Forestry did break his maiden at Churchill Downs, capturing a seven-furlong race.
However, his running style isn’t exactly the way to win the Derby. During the previous 136th renewals only 22 horses went wire to wire. The last time was in ’02 when War Emblem triumphed by four lengths.
Spend a Buck led at every call in ’85 winning by 5 ¼ lengths recording the fourth fastest time for the 1 ¼-contest: 2:00 1/5.
Since ’87, seven horses that had the lead at the eighth pole weren’t the first to hit the wire. However, only Sea Cadet in ’91 failed to hit the board, finishing eighth.
Four managed to run second: Closing Argument, ’05; Cavonnier, ’96; Casual Lies, ’92; and Bet Twice, ’87.
Two horses in Saturday’s Derby that like to come off the pace posted bullets for works last month. Gotham winner Stay Thirsty breezed five furlongs in the slop in a minute on April 24, the quickest of 19 works.
On Sunday, he went five furlongs in the slop in 1:01 4/5, two two-fifths slower than stablemate Uncle Mo, who won the BC Juvenile last year at Churchill Downs.
Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch caught a fast track on April 29 and breezed five furlongs in 59 2/5, sharing the quickest time of 59 runners.
The son of Arch ran once at Churchill Downs back in November, finishing second in his career debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight contest.
Surprisingly, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, the likely lukewarm Derby favorite has confined his workouts to the Palm Meadows training facility in South Florida.
The son of Mineshaft on April 28 cruised five furlongs in 48 2/5, third fastest of six runners.
Dialed In broke his maiden right off the bat in November at Churchill Downs, taking a sprint.
Greg Melikov’s Horses to Watch
Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won four times, finished second six times and ran third twice since Feb. 27. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.
AQUEDUCT
Opus A: Pressed pace a half-length behind in second a half-mile, weakened in stretch and finished third at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 20. (Tracked pace two lengths behind in hired after a half-mile, grabbed lead after six furlongs, increased margin to two lengths in stretch, yielded lead with 70 yards to go and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on April 6.)
This Hard Land: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, advanced in stretch and finished third by 1 ¾ lengths at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 23. (Bumped leaving gate raced eighth and last eight lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide in stretch to gain second by 3 ½ lengths on Feb. 27.)
ATLANTIC CITY
Allrightsreserved: Broke alertly, led by a half-length after a half-mile, increased margin to six lengths in stretch and won handily by 6 ½ lengths at a mile on a good surface March 22 at PARX.
BELMONT
Power Dreams: Raced eighth early, dropped to ninth and last more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, swung four wide into the stretch, rallied from sixth to make up 2 ¾ lengths and gained second by a nose at a mile on a yielding turf course April 29; ran final quarter in 24 ¾.
CALDER
Kuggerand: Raced more than six lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, angled outside leaders for stretch run, rallied to make up four lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 25.
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Prime Speed: Raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up more than 4 ¼ lengths and finished fourth beaten a nose and two necks at six furlongs on April 30; ran final quarter in 23 3/5.
GULFSTREAM PARK
For Terina: Raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in 11th after a half-mile, rallied five wide into stretch, made up more than 4 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on March 23. (Steadied into first turn, raced 12 and last more than nine lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run and gained third by 1 ¼ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on April 17.)
Bad Debt: Raced 7 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied three into stretch to gain lead by two lengths and won by 2 ¾ lengths a 1 1/16 miles on March 13. (Chased pace five lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied three wide into stretch and won by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on the turf April 9.)
HOLLYWOOD PARK
Zees Chris: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, swung out for the drive, rallied to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on April 21.
Ultra Blend: Raced fourth and last a head and 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide to gain lead in stretch by 1 ½ lengths and won by 1 ¼ lengths at a mile on Feb. 26 at Santa Anita. (Bobbled at break, raced more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, swung four wide into stretch, rallied from third to win by a length at 7 ½ furlongs on April 23.)
Crisis of Spirit: Raced more than two lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied four wide into stretch and finished third beaten three-quarters of a length for place at seven furlongs on Feb. 18 at Santa Anita. (Prompted pace a half-length behind in second after a half-mile, couldn’t close gap in stretch and finished second by 4 ½ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on April 22.)
KEENELAND
Keertana: Broke ninth and last, trailed by more than 9 ½ lengths after a half-mile, angled out in stretch and rallied to gain third by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on the turf March 12 at Tampa Bay Downs; ran final eighth in 11 3/5. (Raced 10 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, swung six wide entering stretch, rallied from third to win by 1 ¼ lengths at 1 ½ miles on a yielding turf course April 28.)
OAKLAWN PARK
East Coast Swing: Raced more than 5 ½ lengths behind in seventh after three-eighths of a mile, rallied five wide out of the turn and drew clear late in stretch to win by 1 ½ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on March 27. (Raced 6 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied to take lead turning for home and drew clear to win by two lengths at 1 1/16 miles on April 16; returned $22.40 on front end.)
PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)
Pluracity: Raced 3 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch, rallied between rivals to make up 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on April 23.
Skattle Band: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up three lengths and finished second beaten a length at a mile and 70 yards on a good surface April 9.
Suitable Attire: Lunged at break, off a bit slowly, tracked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, came out in stretch but couldn’t muster rally and finished third at a mile on Feb. 25 at Santa Anita. (Raced six lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came out in stretch and finished third beaten a head for second at seven furlongs on March 19 at Santa Anita.)
Surprise Storm: Raced three lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied around rivals in stretch and gained second by 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on March 9.
PIMLICO
Sillium: Raced 17 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, saved ground on far turn making big middle move, rallied to fourth in stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished second by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course April 22.
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Fabulous Lauren: Broke 12th and last, advanced to eighth more than 16 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out seven wide for drive, closed fast in stretch to make up 5 ½ lengths and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on April 20; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.
Mosquito: Raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, advanced outside to fifth in stretch, bumped late with rival, made up two lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on the turf April 10; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.
Mopleasant: Raced 18 lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, fanned four wide for the drive, brushed with third-place finisher in stretch, closed fast to make up more than seven lengths and finished second beaten a nose at seven furlongs on March 23.
TURF PARADISE
Razor Cut: Raced more than five lengths behind in third after a half-mile, closed steadily in stretch to make up 4 ¼ lengths and finished second by three-quarters of a length at 6 ½ furlongs on April 23.
Brookton: Pressed pace a half-length behind in second after a half-mile, swung four wide to gain lead by a half-length entering stretch and drew off to win by 4 ½ lengths ridden out at six furlongs covered in 1:10 4/5 on April 10. (Dueled with winner through deep stretch and finished second by a length at six furlongs on April 25.)
Absolutely Cool: Stalked pace early in third, dropped to fifth after a half-mile, lacked room on turn and through stretch, closed willingly to make up 1 ½ lengths despite being in traffic and gained second by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on March 26.
Chaplain: Broke eighth and last, moved to seventh more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, closed willingly eight wide in stretch to make up four lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 6 ½ furlongs on March 11.
WOODBINE
Sailin Cailin: Raced more than five lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, angled out in stretch and made up nearly two lengths at 5 ½ furlongs to gain third by a half-length April 22.
Church View: Raced seventh and last more than 5 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, angled widest turning for home, rallied to make up 2 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at five furlongs on April 10. (Raced three lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied from third in stretch, but was outfinished and ran second by a half-length at seven furlongs on April 29.)
Silver Pizzazz: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile and rallied in stretch to gain third beaten a head for second at five furlongs on April 10. (Raced third early, dropped to fourth 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch and finished second beaten a nosed at seven furlongs on April 29.)
Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders
Scores of upsets in major preps and injuries have muddled my Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders. But here’s my final list from the bottom to the top:
Stay Thirsty: Although the son of Bernardini ran poorly in the Florida Derby, he did defeat Wood Memorial victor Toby’s Corner in the Gotham. On April 24, he breezed five furlongs on as sloppy Churchill Downs main track in a minute, the fastest of 19 runners.
Soldat: The son of War Front didn’t run well in the Florida Derby, but few sophomores have recorded back-to-back victories this year. If the Louisville track comes up sloppy like it did earlier this week, his stock rises considerably. He has won twice at 1 1/8 miles, including the Fountain of Youth and an allowance contest on an off track.
Nehro: While the runner-up in two major preps only broke his maiden in February, the son of Mineshaft has become the buzz horse. With a 20-horse field, I suggest flipping a coin to include him in the exotics.
Pants on Fire: Winner of the Louisiana Derby likes to set the pace or sit just off it. The son of Jump Start could go to the front since some speed horses will be on the sidelines. But it’s not exactly the best running style for this big dance.
Midnight Interlude: Another maiden only winner, but it was the Santa Anita Derby despite a troubled stretch run during which he was steadied off the heels of the pacesetter. However, last SA Derby champ to score in the first Triple Crown event was Sunday Silence in 1989.
Uncle Mo: Instead of giving it the gas in the Wood Memorial heading down the stretch, the son of Indian Charlie came out of the race with a gastrointestinal infection, but managed to finish third. The ‘10 champion 2-year-old won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, where he breezed five furlongs in the slop with a stablemate in 1:01 4/5 on Tuesday, galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 3/5.
Toby’s Corner: The son of Bellamy Road, who won the ’05 Wood by more than 17 lengths, captured the same stakes race by a neck, and has triumphed in four routes. Get that coin out again.
Mucho Macho Man: The gutsy horse will have his shoes glued on, too, after losing one leaving the gate in the Louisiana Derby, but managed a third. After a troubled fourth in the Holy Bull, the son of Macho Uno took the Risen Star. Experience is the best teacher.
Archarcharch: This son of Arch has impressed with two victories in preps while rewarding backers with double-digit payouts. Hi running style and tactical speed makes him a big threat.
Dialed In: Another son of Mineshaft will be the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Horses exiting the Florida Derby, which the colt won, do well in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. One criticism of the lightly-raced colt is he hasn’t worked much between races, but that’s his training technique. He debuted last year with a victory in a sprint at Churchill Downs. But the last horse to win the Derby with only four career starts was Exterminator back in 1918.
Kentucky Derby Jinxes Broken in the Long Run
By GREG MELIKOV
There have been more jinxes associated with the Kentucky Derby than I care to recall. But there have been memorable curses snapped during the 21st Century worth mentioning.
One of the more discussed horse jinxes ended in 2007 when Street Sense became the first 2-year-old champion to capture the Derby since Spectacular Bid in ’79. The son of Street Cry also was the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to smell the roses, snapping the 0-for-23 results.
A training jinx ended last year when Todd Pletcher ended his 0-for-24 streak with Super Saver. Previously, the best his horses finished was second, Invisible Ink in ’01 and Bluegrass Cat in ’06.
The oldest Curse of Churchill Downs dates back to 1882 when Apollo roared down the stretch to capture the eighth Derby. He was the last winner that didn’t run as a 2-year-old.
I’d like to introduce a new jinx that I’m calling The Curse of Major Derby Preps. It’s a four-parter that leaves off the Florida Derby since winners Big Brown, ’08, Barbaro, ’06, triumphed at Louisville.
Smarty Jones was the last Arkansas Derby winner to score at Churchill Downs in ’04, the first since ’83 when Sunny’s Halo did it. Archarcharch attempts the feat this year.
The last Blue Grass Stakes winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in ’91. Brilliant Speed tries to end that losing streak.
Winner of the Wood Memorial has had a double jinx the past couple years: Eskendereya in ’10 and I Want Revenge in ’09 came up injured even before the Derby was staged.
Toby’s Corner is trying to become only the second Wood winner since Pleasant Colony in ’81 to visit the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. The other was Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.
Midnight Interlude is attempting to become the first Santa Anita Derby victor since Sunday Silence in ’89 to take the Kentucky Derby.
Ironically, the last maiden-only winner to smell the roses was Giacomo, who ran fourth in the ’05 Santa Anita Derby, that returned the third highest payoff in history — $102.60.
The son of Holy Bull went to Louisville off five straight defeats, including two seconds and a pair of thirds.
His sire didn’t fare too well in the ’94 Kentucky Derby after taking the Florida Derby. The son of Great Above broke slowly and was carried wide on the first turn, never recovered and ran 12th in the slop to Go for Gin.
Holy Bull was on the sidelined for a spell, but then reeled off five straight victories in graded stakes that earned him top 3-year-old and Horse of the Year honors.
Giacomo was only the second sophomore since Proud Clarion in ’67 to take the Kentucky Derby without a stakes victory.
Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders
Upsets galore in the major preps have played havoc with my Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders. You can count the number of favorites that scored in key preps on one hand. How the 3-year-olds work at Churchill Downs before the first Saturday in May will determine my final standings from the bottom to the top:
The Factor: His displaced palate in the Arkansas Derby doesn’t worry me as much as his pedigree. Dad War Front was a sprinter and The Factor couldn’t even get the lead from the break last time out. However, he’s the only sophomore to take two major preps as the favorite. And he went wire to wire, not exactly the bet running style for Louisville.
Soldat: Another son of War Front came up flat in the Florida Derby, but that doesn’t mean he won’t stand a chance at Churchill Downs. If it comes up sloppy his stock climbs. He does have two victories at 1 1/8 miles, including the Fountain of Youth and an allowance contest on an off track.
Nehro: The runner-up in two major preps only broke his maiden in February. He is the son of Mineshaft. But I suggest getting a coin out to flip.
Pants on Fire: Winner of the Louisiana Derby likes to sit just off the pace. But the son of Jump Start will be in a crowd in a field with speed aplenty. A clean trip often decides races with large fields. And Lady Luck has a say, too. Love the name.
Midnight Interlude: Another maiden only winner, but it was the Santa Anita Derby despite a troubled stretch run during which he was steadied off the heels of the pacesetter. But the last SA Derby champ to score in the first Triple Crown event was Sunday Silence in 1989.
Uncle Mo: The son of Indian Charlie, third in the ’98 Kentucky Derby, had the lead in mid-stretch of the Wood Memorial, but faltered and finished third, possibly because of the diagnosed gastrointestinal infection. Another horse finished third at Aqueduct 38 years ago and rebounded in the Kentucky Derby en route to becoming the 10th Triple Crown champ – Secretariat. When he came up four lengths short at Aqueduct some handicappers questioned whether he had the stamina to go long. Like Uncle Mo, Secretariat’s top route victory had been 1 1/16 miles until the Kentucky Derby. Will history repeat?
Toby’s Corner: Will this be another case of like father, life son? His dad Bellamy Road romped in the ’05 Wood by more than 17 lengths and then ran seventh at Louisville. The son won his second stakes at Aqueduct by a neck and has four scores in routes. You make the call.
Mucho Macho Man: The if-you-don’t-succeed-at-first-horse tried again tossed a shoe leaving the gate in the Louisiana Derby, but managed a fourth. After a troubled fourth in the Holy Bull, the son of Macho Uno captured the Risen Star. Could be worth a wager at attractive odds.
Archarcharch: This son of Arch returned double-digit payoffs in two preps and continues to impress. Tactical speed puts him in the hunt. He ran the last three furlongs of the Arkansas Derby in 37 2/5, making up more than two lengths in deep stretch.
Dialed In: This son of Mineshaft, by process of elimination, will be the lukewarm choice in the Kentucky Derby. Horses coming out of Gulfstream Park’s showcase stakes race do well at Churchill Downs. He rates a good chance of becoming the third winner in the past six years of repeating on the first Saturday in May.
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