Archive for the 'Handicapping' Category
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By GREG MELIKOV
I’m making an addition to my handicapping toolbox after an experiment since late summer produced quite a few winners.
It’s one of the helpful features of Brisnet.com past performances listed on the front of each race - the figure beneath “SPEED.” The number is the average winning speed at the distance during a particular track’s meeting.
From time to time I adjust my toolbox. This is just another way to consider speed when handicapping races no matter the track. I still include my favorites: class, horses for courses, successful jockey-trainer combos, running styles and racing patterns.
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Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should do well or improve significantly next time out, won 10 races, ran second six times and finished third twice since Aug. 2. These thoroughbreds are worth considering no matter your betting choice or preferred racebook.
It’s Tiffin Time: Raced sixth more than 7 1/2 lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced to fourth in stretch, closed with a rush five wide to make up 6 1/4 lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at 1 1/16 miles on Sept. 13.
Pure Clan: Raced more than 7 1/2 lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, launched mild midway on far turn, blocked behind a wall of horses nearing quarter pole, angled out in sixth for room at three-sixteenth pole, split rivals in mid-stretch, made up more than 1 1/2 lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on a yielding turf course Sept. 6.
Storm Heat: Broke 10th and last, advanced to seventh more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, encountered traffic in stretch…
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By GREG MELIKOV
Big Brown was installed as the heavy odds-on early favorite in the 133rd Preakness that attracted a surprising number of challengers — 12.
The last 13-horse fields came during the past decade and both winners of the Kentucky Derby prevailed: War Emblem in ‘02 and Charismatic in ‘99.
Ironically, they posted slower speed figures than in Louisville. Four other Kentucky Derby winners stepped up in Baltimore and their speed figures climbed.
Big Brown, 1-2, will break from post 7, which has produced five winners in the past 19 years. He’s 13 slots closer toward the rail than he was in the Derby. The son of Boundary and Gayego are the only two from this year’s Run for the Roses.
It’s the sixth time since Derby horses began running in the Preakness 90 years ago that two starters at Churchill Downs raced at Pimlico. The last year was ‘80 when Codex beat the Derby-winning filly Genuine Risk by 4 3/4 lengths.
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By GREG MELIKOV
The 134th Kentucky Derby is difficult to handicap for several reasons ranging from speed figures to varying track surfaces.
For instance, a dozen contenders won 14 key preps from February through April. The only two-time winners, Pyro and Colonel John, haven’t posted a triple-digit figure this year.
Pyro ran a dismal 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The son of Pulpit and six other colts finished fifth or worse in their final prep. The last horse to triumph at Churchill Downs after running that poorly or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege, fifth in ‘57.
Colonel John is yet to run on the dirt. Nearly half of the prospective field had one or more preps on synthetic surfaces.
So what’s a handicapper to do? One key to success just might lie in the speed figures posted in preps regardless of surfaces.
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By GREG MELIKOV
Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should do well next time out or improve considerably, won five races, ran second five times and finished third three times since Dec. 16.
Double Down Vinman: Bumped after break, raced seventh early, advanced to fourth more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied inside to make up more than 4 1/2 lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface Jan. 11; ran final quarter in 24 4/5.
Kat’s Mystery: Bumped after break, trailed early, advanced from ninth to sixth more than 4 1/2 lengths behind after a half-mile, came wide into stretch losing ground, closed well to make up 7 1/4 lengths and finished third beaten a neck and three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Jan. 6.
And more horses from Delta Downs, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Philadelphia Park, Sam Houston Race Park, Santa Anita, Turfway Park and Turf Paradise…
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By GREG MELIKOV
I’ve always believed it’s tricky trying to handicap horses coming off long layoffs. So the next logical question: How about second time off a layoff?
One of my favorite handicappers that answered the original question is Steve Klein of the Daily Racing Form. His premise expressed several years ago:
“The theory that previous comeback attempts can accurately predict the future comeback tries is terribly flawed. It is a cherished handicapping myth that I’ve never seen challenged in print. The problem is that the theory assumes that all layoffs are equal. They aren’t. Short layoffs aren’t usually a big deal.”
First, let’s review some horse betting strategy often followed when considering horses returning to the track no matter the length of a layoff…
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By GREG MELIKOV
There are so many Breeders’ Cup races this weekend I didn’t know where to start. I began handicapping last week to get a jump on the 11 races spread over two days beginning Friday at Monmouth Park.
Ah, then the changes began: injuries, withdrawals, switching races, etc. It’s not easy being a horseplayer in the fall when the Breeders’ Cup rolls around.
I’ve had some pretty awful years handicapping the event. Several years ago I suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune, selecting only one of eight winners.
My best year came in 1999 when I covered the Breeders’ Cup at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, my old stomping grounds. I had several winners, a couple of exactas and a trifecta.
That was then and this is now. So I’m going to concentrate on what I consider the two most competitive races.
There are some so wide open you better hope Lady Luck is in your corner. For instance, the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at a mile on Friday had the most pre-entries that included four 2-year-olds that never ran on the grass and seven that had three or fewer outings.
I liked Old Man Buck because of his two wins on the grass. But trainer Ken McPeek opted for the Juvenile even though the son of Hold That Tiger ran sixth in his only trip on dirt.
The three top horses, all with turf experience, appear to be…
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Curlin is one of the most naturally speed gifted horses of recent years. From being unstarted to becoming the Preakness Stakes winner, Curlin exploded in mere months by displaying speed and persistency beyond his horse racing experience. Now, Curlin is to be test again on the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Curlin was unbeaten when the chestnut colt entered the Kentucky Derby and tasted defeat to Street Sense. Then Curlin took Preakness Stakes away before falling a nose short to Rags to Riches in the Belmont Stakes.
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Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and Preakness Stakes winner Curlin are among the favorites to win the 1 1/4 miles Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Thoroughbred horse race for three-year-olds is all set on October 27 at Monmouth Park in New Jersey.
In preparation for next week’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense had a strong workout at Churchill Downs on Monday. Street Sense clocked 1:00.80 over five furlongs with jockey Calvin Borel.
Street Sense the son of 2002 Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry, won the $1 million Travers Stakes in August before being beaten by Hards Spun in last month’s Kentucky Cup Classic.
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By GREG MELIKOV
Nine of the 11 Breeders’ Cup races during the two-day $23 million spectacular that begins Oct. 26 at Monmouth Park are routes, including four on the turf.
During this year’s regular 62nd meeting, the longer contests weren’t dominated by speed like sprints, but front-runners did well.
In 80 races at one mile, victorious wire-to-wire horses […]
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