The 27th BC: How to Play Seven of 14 Races
By GREG MELIKOV
Fourteen races featuring many good horses is difficult to handicap even spread over two days. So when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup I concentrate on contests I’m comfortable wagering on and seek classy horses with outstanding recent form.
Three of the six BC races on Friday’s female card at Churchill Downs caught my eye: a pair for 2-year-olds and the Ladies’ Classic.
Winter Memories, the morning line 2-1 favorite breaking from post 7, is the one to beat in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at a mile. The daughter of El Prado likes to come from far back turning for home, but had the lead or was second in the stretch before drawing clear in both career starts defeating several taking her on again.
Her main challengers: More Than Real, post 11, ridden by hot jockey Garrett Gomez, and Near Normal, post 10, who has defeated the daughter of More Than Ready going wire to wire at the distance. Both are 10-1 and will be included in my exacta box.
The Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles features four contenders I’ll use in exotics. Undefeated Awesome Feather, the early 6-1 fourth choice breaking from post 4, has the top speed figure in the last, sweeping Calder’s Florida Stallion Stakes 2-year-old division.
I’m including morning line 7-2 favorite A Z Warrior, post 8, who won her debut on dirt in the Grade 1 Frizette; runner-up R Heat Lightning, 4-1, post 3; and Tell A Kelly, 9-2, post 12, never farther back in the stretch than second in her last and two previous two victories.
Any of the quartet I like could take the Ladies Classic at 1 1/8 miles. Two 4-year-olds offer the best early odds at 8-1: Malibu Prayer, post 3, and Unrivaled Belle, post 8. Each has a victory at the distance and in a Churchill Downs route.
The top two morning line choices break from the outside: Blind Luck, 9-5, post 10, and Havre De Grace, 4-1, post 11.
Havre De Grace edged Blind Luck by a neck in their last of three consecutive meetings, breaking a losing streak in graded stakes decided by no more than a neck.
On Saturday, I’m wagering on four of the eight BC contests starting with the Juvenile Turf at a mile. Four seems to be the number for me when considering contenders. So exotics it is again.
Pluck’s early odds are the lowest at 6-1. Winning twice and beaten a neck on three different grass courses made the difference even though he breaks from post 13.
In addition, I’ll use Air Support, 8-1, post 4, and Soldat, 8-1, post 9, both victorious in a graded stakes contest. And I’m tossing in Banned, 10-1, post 8, going for three in a row.
The Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles appears to a two-colt affair between Boys At Tosconova, 5-2, post 3, and Uncle Mo, 7-5, post 7, but the latter has an impressive win at a mile. I’m tossing in Stay Thirsty, 8-1, post 6, son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini bred for distance that’s 2-1-0 of 3.
I’m betting the BC Mile with my heart because Goldikova is going for the threepeat to make history. The morning line 6-5 choice breaks from post 10, a slot closer to the rail than last year when she won by a half-length at Santa Anita Park.
The 5-year-old mare has scored at the distance a dozen times and ran second thrice in 15 outings. I’m including two Grade 1 winners on grass in exotics: Gio Ponti, 4-1, post 3, and Proviso, 12-1, post 11.
Gio Ponti, 3 for 4 at a mile, shares the highest speed figure for eight furlongs, while Proviso is 4 for 8, including three victories at the distance this year.
Most racing fans will be cheering for Zenyatta to repeat in the BC Classic. Many horseplayers, however, are hoping the early 8-5 choice gets beat for a better payoff. Zenyatta who broke from post 4 in the ’09 in the 1 ¼ race drew post 8.
I’m pairing her on top of a trifecta with two males while hoping she stays undefeated in her 20th start:
Preakness champ Lookin at Lucky, 6-1, working exceptional well and going for his fourth straight breaking from post 12 that should keep him out of trouble early, and Blame, 9-2, post 5, with three victories at the Louisville track and winner of five Grade 1s in his last six contests.
Underneath I’m using Quality Road, 5-1, post 1; Haynesfield, 12-1, post 3; and Fly Down, 15-1, post 6.
Good luck in the 27th Breeders’ Cup.
"The 27th BC: How to Play Seven of 14 Races" was posted on 4 November 2010 1:41 AM under Horse Racing News, Horses, Race Tracks, Stakes Races, Trainers
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