Kentucky Derby Runners Hold Distinct Advantage in The Preakness Stakes

By GREG MELIKOV

Horses that run in the Kentucky Derby no matter where they finish have held a distinct advantage in the Preakness during the past quarter-century. An amazing 22 of the past 25 Kentucky Derby runners captured the Preakness.

Surprisingly the only exceptions came in the 21st Century: filly Rachel Alexandra, ’09; Bernardini, ’06; and Red Bullet, ’00.

Four Kentucky Derby winners the past decade were successful at Pimlico. Two others were runners-up behind newcomers: Mine That Bird last year and Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.

Three others that failed at Churchill Downs during the same period triumphed in the Preakness Stakes: Curlin, ’07; Afleet Alex, ’05; and Point Given, ’01.

In ’05, during one of the more exciting races, Afleet Alex overcame near disaster in the stretch. The son of Northern Afleet, third in the Kentucky Derby, came flying around the far turn with dead aim on pacesetter High Limit, but was blocked.

Suddenly Scrappy T, racing second in front of him, bore out in the upper stretch. Aflex Alex stumbled, buckled to his knees and jockey Jeremy Rose was almost unseated. Both quickly recovered their balance and the colt zipped inside Scrappy T, sticking his head in front a furlong from the wire. Aflex Alex drew off and won by 4 3/4 lengths.

Newcomers had their best showing in the early ’80s. Three horses that skipped the Louisville race captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown: Deputed Testimony, ’83; Alomas’s Ruler, ’82; and Codex, ’80.

The Preakness favorites haven’t let down the betting public during the past 20 years, winning 10 times, including nine that exited the Kentucky Derby. Double-digit winners have been few and far between — only 10 since ’75 when the longest shot in history, Master Derby, returned $40 on the front end.

Race horse trainer Todd Pletcher will be the first trainer of a Kentucky Derby winner to saddle that horse and another runner in the same Preakness since ’99 when D. Wayne Lukas sent out Charismatic, first at Churchill Downs, and third-place finisher Cat Thief. Charismatic also won at Pimlico while Cat Thief was seventh.

Meanwhile, Lukas will attempt to take his sixth Preakness since Codex scored in ’80. He’s running Dublin, seventh in the Kentucky Derby, and Northern Giant, ninth in the Arkansas Derby.

Lukas said Northern Giant “is a fresh horse and he has been training well. He ran a couple of good races in New Orleans and was second in the Lane’s End Stakes so he merits a chance.”

Dale Romans also plans to enter a pair: Paddy O’Prado, third in the Kentucky Derby, and First Dude, third in the Blue Grass.

Wagering on the Preakness should depend on the formula you use to handicap stakes races: form, class, race conditions, connections, etc.

First and foremost, as far as I’m concerned, any contender should exhibit form, plus necessary morning workouts since the last outing.

For example, 3-year-olds that haven’t raced in more than 30 days should show a work at Pimlico and ample evidence they have a history of performing well off short or long short layoffs.

Class is important, but a tricky part of the puzzle. I believe runners that performed well against first-rate foes in past recent races merit consideration. However, those that benefited from easy pace figures against lesser rivals should send up a red flag.

It’s a good idea to visualize how the Preakness will be run: who the front-runners will be, what contenders will be stalking and which runners have the best chance of closing.

One myth perpetuated over the years ballyhoos Pimlico as a speed-favoring surface with sharp turns that favor front-running horses. Actually, the turns are almost identical to Churchill Downs.

However, keep in mind horses in the lead turning for home have the edge since the stretch is 168 feet shorter that Churchill Downs’ 1,320 feet.

About The Author

Greg Melikov: Horse Racing Handicapper/Turf Writer Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a horse racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

"Kentucky Derby Runners Hold Distinct Advantage in The Preakness Stakes" was posted on 12 May 2010 9:45 AM under Horse Racing News, Horses, Preakness Stakes, Race Tracks, Racing Picks & Betting Tips, Stakes Races, Triple Crown

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