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The Preakness Stakes Field: I Call ‘em the Way I See ‘em
By GREG MELIKOV
The 134th Preakness Stakes 2009 features 13 horses going 1 3/16 miles on Saturday. I’m classifying them in several categories from those 3-year-olds that stand little chance to those Preakness horses that wouldn’t surprise.
The Don’t Belongs
Flying Private: Should change his name to Walking Buckless Private. He’s one for 11, and that was at six furlongs way back in August. He’s coming off a last place finish in the Kentucky Derby beaten 43 3/4 lengths. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has no chance of saddling his sixth winner in 33 Preakness starts at 50-1.
Luv Gov: I don’t. A bad omen — he’s named for former New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer who resigned in disgrace. He has no business in the Preakness field after just breaking his maiden on Kentucky Derby Day. Be battling for last. Lukas stands no chance of saddling his sixth winner in 34 starts at 50-1.
Tone It Down: Is 2-2-0 at a Maryland track, but it’s Laurel Park. But victories in optional claiming and maiden special weight contests don’t merit trying the big boys and girl. The 50-1 shot drew post 12 and could finish there.
The Pretenders
Big Drama: His record is impressive — 6 for 7. But he only ran once this year, losing by DQ to sprinter This Ones for Phil at seven furlongs. This speed horse breaks from post 1 and must go to the lead. Surprisingly he’s 10-1 on the morning line. Better chance in one of two stakes at six furlongs on the Preakness Day. Only three of the past 36 races were wire-to-wire jobs.
Take the Points: Better get four TDs because he disappointed in both Kentucky Derby prep races, then skipped the Run for the Roses. Trainer Todd Pletcher is stretching it a bit off allowance and maiden-breaking scores. The 30-1 shot breaks from post 11.
Terrain: Both victories came as a 2-year-old. Chased three running on Saturday. Maybe worth a play at 30-1 since he drew post 6 that has produced the most wins — 15. Hunch bettors, you make the call.
Friesan Fire: Not sure if he has fully recovered from one of the dozen bad trips at Churchill Downs during which he suffered cuts on his legs. One of two third choices at 6-1 that drew post 5 tries to become the first beaten Kentucky Derby favorite to take the Preakness Stakes since Point Given in ‘01.
General Quarters: The 20-1 odds are very enticing. His racing pattern the past four outings point to a big race: win, off the board, win, off the board. Must use in exotics. Might be worth a win wager.
Mine That Bird: Kentucky Derby champ drew post 2 and is 6-1. If Pimlico comes up sloppy, his chances increase. I’m not sure he’s as good as that last performance. Losing jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexander is a negative. Jockey Mike Smith is good, but don’t expect the rail to open up again.
Musket Man: The dark horse at 8-1. Another victim of a troubled Kentucky Derby trip? Can he outrun his pedigree again? Might be worth using underneath in exotics. I may be sorry, but you can’t bet ‘em all.
My Preakness Picks
Pioneerof the Nile: The early 5-1 third choice answered one question in his dirt debut by finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. He did well breaking from post 16 during a troubled trip. However, he caused most of the trouble. Post 5 is a better draw. Odds should drop a bit. Don’t leave him out of the exotics.
Rachel Alexandra: Which came first the odds or the post-position draw? The morning line: 8-5. Won’t be that low at race time. The post: unlucky 13. No horse ever triumphed from there. Will it make a difference? Could be since the pace should be contested. Don’t leave her out of the exotics.
Papa Clem: The son of Smart Strike, who sired ‘07 winner Curlin, endured the worst of it in the Kentucky Derby from the break: brushed and bumped, then under steady restraint chomping at bit, and bumped in the stretch when Pioneer of the Nile drifted out. He only lost second by a nose and a head. Five winners the past two decades breaking from post 7 won — Smarty Jones was the last in ‘04. Worth a win wager at 12-1, but should be lower. I’ll also include in all the exotics.
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One Response to “The Preakness Stakes Field: I Call ‘em the Way I See ‘em”
Money talks at the racetrack. Rachel Alexandra was purchased recently for a speculated 7-10 million dollars and supplemented to the Preakness for $100,000.
The jockey of the Derby winner has called RA the best racehorse that he has ever ridden and he has gotten off the Derby winner to ride RA.
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Jethro Bodine
May 15th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Money talks at the racetrack. Rachel Alexandra was purchased recently for a speculated 7-10 million dollars and supplemented to the Preakness for $100,000.
The jockey of the Derby winner has called RA the best racehorse that he has ever ridden and he has gotten off the Derby winner to ride RA.