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There are a number of factors that ultimately determine which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2009, from speed, traffic, post positions, jockeys, trainers, etc. One factor that could trump all of those for the 2009 Kentucky Derby is the weather. There is a 70% chance of rain on Saturday and that would throw this year’s Kentucky Derby into a mud-filled guessing game.
Only six of the 20 horses entered in Kentucky Derby odds have ever run on a wet track. Only two Kentucky Derby entries have won, Desert Party and Friesan Fire. Let’s look at those two horses in addition to some others that might either like or hate the mud.
The three favorites in Kentucky Derby odds are likely to be I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Dunkirk. If you like any of those three, the rain could be a major factor in Kentucky Derby betting.
If it rains you have to wonder how I Want Revenge will handle the slop. He was moved from synthetic to dirt so would he have trouble with the traction at Churchill Downs? And if he couldn’t beat Pioneerof the Nile on synthetics (0 for 2) why will he beat the horse in the mud? At least if you choose Pioneerof the Nile in the mud you know he has already beaten I Want Revenge twice.
The other horse with low Kentucky Derby odds is Dunkirk and he may not like the slop either. It doesn’t help that his trainer Todd Pletcher is 0 for 21 in the Kentucky Derby.
The other horse with single digit Kentucky Derby odds is Friesan Fire and he has already proven he can win in the mud. His trainer Larry Jones has been second the last two years in the Derby and maybe he is due for a break this year.
The two Dubai horses from Godolphin Racing also might like the mud. Regal Ransom and Desert Party could take very well to a sloppy track on Saturday. The only negative for Desert Party is post position #19 where no horse has ever won from.
Another horse that is expected to love the mud is Chocolate Candy. At Kentucky Derby odds of 20-1 he must be used in your tickets if the track is muddy on Saturday.
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