Cashing 2009 Kentucky Derby Exotic Tickets Easier Said Than Done
By GREG MELIKOV
I’ve done pretty well picking Kentucky Derby winners, but when it comes to exotic wagers my cash-winning-tickets percentage drops off.
When I play the Kentucky Derby Day card, I do much better. So let me reflect on the past half-dozen years:
2003: It was a very good year. When I saw Funny Cide finish fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 18, I had no idea if he had a shot at Churchill Downs, but there was something about him that caught my eye.
The son of Distorted Humor broke from post 13, encountered trouble along the way and traveled wide the entire 1 1/16 miles run in 1:43. The time equaled the fastest for the distance since ’94 Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin triumphed in 1:41 3/5.
In the Louisiana Derby in early March, Funny Cide stayed close to the pace, rallied in the stretch, dropped and came again along the rail to finish third chasing Peace Rules. He was placed second when Kafwain was disqualified.
So on March 16, I placed a Kentucky Derby futures wager on him at 59-1. The first Saturday in May proved a very lucky afternoon when I viewed the simulcast at Retama Park in Greater San Antonio where I hit hitting several exactas on the card.
I played a $1 trifecta for $23 keying Funny Cide, Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted on top of all three and Offlee Wild with all three in the middle and Funny Cide, Offlee Wild, Ten Most Wanted and Peace Rules. I also bet $2 on Funny Cide’s nose.
Funny Cide didn’t disappointment — returning $27.60 on the front end. The trifecta paid $332.40. And the futures bet rewarded me with $120.80.
The bottom line: Don’t let high odds scare you off a horse. Few favorites have scored over the past three decades.
2004: I had the winner — Smarty Jones. But my exacta fell short. When The Cliff’s Edge, one of five trained by Nick Zito, and Pollard’s Vision didn’t hit the board. Zito’s horse had a legitimate excuse after finishing a game fifth on a sloppy surface. The son of Gulch broke slowly, lost both front shoes and developed a stone bruise on his right foot.
The bottom line: Luck, good or bad, sometimes plays a big part in the results. My advice: Get over it and moved on.
2005: Few had 50-1 winner Giacomo. I had the third-place finisher. Afleet Alex did take the Preakness and Belmont Stakes and I was on him. The horse I really liked was High Fly, but the Zito curse continued for me as the Florida Derby victor ran 10th off a five-week layoff. I did do well in other races, collecting on a couple of exactas and a trifecta.
The bottom line: Only way to catch a big bomber is to play a name or hunch or numbers or whatever.
2006: Barbaro was among my top three selections. Another Florida Derby winner bucked the layoff curse and became the first horse in a half-century since Needles to smell the roses after five weeks off. The $14.20 for $2 was a gift. My others dead-heated for fourth and ran seventh. Hmmm, no Zito horse.
The bottom line: If at first you don’t hit exotics, try again, even in other Derby Day contests. I hit several.
2007: It was first and third for the quartet of the horses I bet. Street Sense returned $11.80 on the front end. Curlin ran third so I missed out on the exacta. Zitoless again.
The bottom line: Betting to win often pays off because even second and third choices pay off handsomely.
2008: I liked Big Brown after he won the Florida Derby from the outside 12th post. I liked him in the Kentucky Derby despite the outside 20th post. The price wasn’t right, $6.80, but he was. I lost a small exacta wager, but the Kentucky Derby Day car made it worthwhile. Zitoless once more.
The bottom line: Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
"Cashing 2009 Kentucky Derby Exotic Tickets Easier Said Than Done" was posted on 23 April 2009 7:51 AM under Horse Racing News, Horses, Kentucky Derby, Special Features, Stakes Races, Triple Crown
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