Breeders’ Cup Longshots: Horses Worth a Look

By GREG MELIKOV

Favorites generally win one-third of the time at American racetracks. During the current Oak Tree meeting, however, top choices scored 40 percent through Oct. 29.

The Breeders’ Cup, dating back to the inaugural event in 1984, has produced winning favorites 34 1/2 percent in 196 races.

The biggest upset in Breeders’ Cup history came in the ’93 Breeders’ Cup Classic when European import Arcangues triumphed at a whopping 133-1.

Eight of 14 Breeders’ Cup winners last year at Santa Anita returned double-digit payoffs. The highest return was compliments of Desert Code who paid $75 on the front end, producing a $29,663.30 superfecta.

In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, two horses that won at the 1 1/16 miles are capable of springing an upset: Smart Seattle, 8-1, and Lisa’s Kitten, 12-1.

In the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, Evita Argentina appears the best of three 20-1 shots with a chance off her 3 for 6 record on synthetic surfaces despite the presence of likely odds-on choice Ventura. A double-digit place payoff wouldn’t be bad either.

The 8-1 Bridgetown boasts the best speed figure at the mile in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winning a graded stakes race at Woodbine.

With all the front-running speed in the Sprint at six furlongs, Capt. Candyman Can at 15-1 could surprise in a wide-open race.

Pulsion, 20-1, finished second to likely favorite Looking At Lucky at 1 1/16 miles in a recent prep at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has steadily improved in four starts.

Karelian at 20-1 looks interesting in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Four of his seven victories have been at a mile on the grass and he is 7 of 15 in career turf outings. Whatsthescript, 15-1, broke from post 11 last year and closed big time from 11th to third behind defending champ Goldikova. He’s 2-0-2 of 5 at Oak Tree, 4-0-2 on the grass lifetime.

Neko Bay, 20-1, loves Santa Anita – he’s 4-2-0 for 6. Trainer John Sherriffs, who also sends out unbeaten Zenyatta against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, is 30 percent winners in 99 graded stakes this year.

If you’re looking for upsets in the Classic, consider a couple of 12-1 shots that rally from off the pace. Gio Ponti is the likely Eclipse turf champ off four Grade 1 victories on grass, including two a 1 1/4 miles. Richard’s Kid is 1-1-1 in his last 3 on California synthetic courses. Trainer Bob Baffert is 26 percent winners from 231 entries in graded stakes races for ’08.

About The Author

Greg Melikov: Horse Racing Handicapper/Turf Writer Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a horse racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

"Breeders’ Cup Longshots: Horses Worth a Look" was posted on 6 November 2009 7:14 AM under Breeders' Cup, Horse Racing News, Horses, Race Tracks, Racing Picks & Betting Tips, Stakes Races

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