A Look at America’s Race by the Numbers

I like numbers, especially when it comes to horse racing. Figures are often mentioned in connection with America’s Race.

Since this will be the 2009 Kentucky Derby, let’s play a numbers game:

1: The first running was in 1875: Aristides, named for a Pennsylvania horse breeder and not the ancient Athenian general and statesman, won when the distance was 1 1/2 miles.

3a: The Kentucky Derby is the first of the Triple Crown races that include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. The term was coined by Daily Racing Form writer Charles Hatton in an article about Gallant Fox in 1930 — winner of all 3 races.

3b: During the past 30 years only 3 favorites triumphed: Spectacular Bid, ’79; Smarty Jones, ’04; and Big Brown, last year.

5: Two jockeys share the most victories: Hall of Famers Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack. Arcaro rode in 21 contests and two of his five Kentucky Derby winners captured the Triple Crown — Whirlaway in ’41 and Citation in ’48. Hartack won on five of a dozen mounts, including Iron Liege in ’57 and Northern Dancer in ’64.

Numbers come into play from the most productive preps to what post positions fare the best.

One thing is certain: Hitting the board in the final prep on the Road to the Roses is paramount. All but three winners in the past 47 years triumphed at Louisville after finishing off the board in their previous race and they ran fourth.

In ’05, Giacomo scored the second biggest upset in history after finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and returned $102.60. The last SA Derby winner to score at Louisville was Sunday Silence in ’89.

Two horses that ran fourth a couple years apart in the Blue Grass won the Kentucky Derby and paid very well: Sea Hero, $27.80 in ’93, and Thunder Gulch, $24.50 in ’95.

During the past 47 years, 16 Kentucky Derby champs chose the Blue Grass as the final prep. Ten ran in the Wood and 6 raced in the SA Derby.

Eight 3-year-olds that scored in their final outing during the 1970s triumphed on the first Saturday in May. Two others ended up third, including ’73 Triple Crown champ Secretariat.

In the Wood Memorial, Secretariat’s tablemate Angle Light went straight to the front and never looked back. A new challenger to the supremacy of Secretariat named Sham finished second. Ah, but in the 99th Derby Sham was the runner-up and Angle Light was a distant 10th.

The post position that produced the greatest number of winners the past 47 years is No. 10 — 7. Next with 5 each are posts 2 and 8 followed by 4 from posts 2, 3 and 5.

During the past 14 years, seven winners broke from post 13 all the way out to 20. Two posts are winless: 17 and 19. Three horses scored from post 16 while a pair won from 15.

The largest margin of victory in America’s Race is eight lengths, shared by four: Triple Crown winners Whirlaway, ’41, and Assault, ’46; as well as Old Rosebud, ’14, and Johnstown, ’39.

But there have been nine derbies in which the winner was only a nose better than the runner-up: Spokane, 1889; Azra, 1892; Ben Brush, 1896; Plaudit, 1898; Ala-a-Dale, 1902; Brokers Tip, 1933; Iron Liege, 1957; Tomy Lee, 1959; and Grindstone, 1996.

About The Author

Greg Melikov: Horse Racing Handicapper/Turf Writer Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a horse racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

"A Look at America’s Race by the Numbers" was posted on 23 April 2009 10:53 PM under Horse Racing News, Horses, Special Features, Stakes Races, Triple Crown

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