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The 134th Kentucky Derby is around the corner and my list of Top 10 contenders for America’s Greatest Race has changed a bit. There are still ifs and maybes concerning what 3-year-olds will start, but the April preps reduced who will be racing on the third Saturday in May.
So here we go again, Dave Letterman style, from the bottom:
10. Cool Coal Man/Visionaire: Fountain of Youth victor
Cool Coal Man was among several 3-year-olds that disappointed in their debut on a synthetic surface, finishing seventh in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. That ended his two-race win streak accomplished on Gulfstream Park’s dirt track. Visionaire ran fourth after taking the Gotham by a nose at Aqueduct in the slop. The last Kentucky Derby winner to run fourth in the Blue Grass was Thunder Gulch in 1995 when the surface was dirt.
9. Smooth Air: Followed his third in the Tampa Bay Derby with a second behind Florida Derby champ Big Brown. The steadily improving son of Smooth Jazz has a chance to hit the board if he has a clean trip.
8. Court Vision: Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle this year. The son of Gulch duplicated his third-place finish in the FOY in the Wood Memorial, but his speed figures have been on the slow side. Neither ‘05 Derby winner Giacomo or ‘03 winner Funny Cide had a victory the year they prepped. While this closer has only two races as a sophomore, he boasts a solid foundation as a 2-year-old with a pair of graded stakes victories.
7. Recapturetheglory: The son of Cherokee Run punched his ticket to Churchill Downs with a wire-to-wire victory in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, reminiscent of ‘02 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. He continues to improve after finishing second to Cool Coal Man in the FOY.
6. War Pass: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ rebounded from his seventh and last place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby to second in the Wood. He posted quick fractions, but fell a half-length short after the 1 1/8 miles. The big question for another Cherokee Run sibling– can he go 1 1/4 miles on May 3?
5. Tale of Ekati: Take of the Cat sibling rebounded from fourth to Pyro in Louisiana Derby to take the Wood. Has solid foundation as a juvenile. Could surprise.
4. Gayego: California invader made his debut on the dirt a winning one in the Arkansas Derby with a four-length triumph. The son of Gilded Time covered the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5 – two ticks faster than ‘07 Horse of the Year Curlin when he posted a record 10 ½-length victory.
3. Colonel John: The son of Tiznow closed like a freight train to take the Santa Anita Derby. His pedigree indicates he can get the distance at Louisville, but the colt has a definite disadvantage having only raced on synthetic surfaces.
2. Pyro: The son of Pulpit didn’t run a lick from the start of the Blue Grass and obviously didn’t care for the Polytrack. He ran 10th and beat only two horses. That ended his two-race streak in which he posted come-from-behind wins in stakes at Fair Grounds. Many experts say throw out the effort. At least his odds with go up in Louisville.
1. Big Brown: Huge Florida Derby victory from the No. 12 post boosts this son of Boundary to top of the heap. His 1:48 for the 1 1/8 miles was the fastest since ‘96 and only a fraction off Gufstream’s track record. On Saturday, he worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on the dirt at Palm Meadows Training Center. He’s in the catbird seat, but must over the decades-old curse that no runner with only four career outings has smelled the roses since Exterminator in ‘18.
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