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How I See the 14 Races of 25th Breeders’ Cup

By GREG MELIKOV

Here’s the 25th Breeders’ Cup 2008 in a nutshell.

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs: There are two horses to beat, both 3-year-old fillies. Indian Blessing, the early 2-1 choice is 2 for 2 at the distance, with a victory over the old Santa Anita Park Cushion Track. Zaftig won twice at the distance on dirt, beating Indian Blessing at a mile. Indyanne or Intangaroo can round out the trifecta off their synthetic surface form.

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, a mile: Too wide open to call. Darts, anyone?

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles: No foreign invader has won. Top contenders: Stardom Bound, 2-1, is 2-2-0 of 4 on synthetic surfaces, scoring at the distance in 1:42 2/5 at Santa Anita. Sky Diva, 7-2, daughter of 2008 leading 2-year-old sire Sky Mesa, is 2 for 2 at a mile on dirt. Include C. S. Silk, 15-1, with the highest speed figure.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/4 miles: Top contenders: Dynaforce, 2-2-1 at the distance; Mauralakana, 5 of 7 this year on the turf; and Wait A While, undefeated in three starts over Santa Anita’s grass.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, 1 1/8 miles: Favorites dominate, as 17 of 24 winners were less than 3-1, which probably accounts for the small fields. Zenyatta, morning line 3-5 favorite, is undefeated in eight races that include seven on synthetic surfaces. I like her to defeat seven challengers. Longshot Carriage at 8-1, who won twice on Polytrack, is worth including in exotics.

$500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon, 1 1/2 miles: Roll out the dartboard again.

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 6 1/2 furlongs: California Flag, boasting four victories on the grass with jockey Joe Talamo aboard, can repeat Morvich win at the distance even though breaking from post 10. Main challengers are to gelding’s outside: speedsters Mr. Nightlinger (No. 14), going for sixth in row in turf sprints, and Morvich runner-up Get Funky (No. 13), the best closer.

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: Well Armed, the 3-1 morning line favorite, bypassed the Breeders’ Cup Classic even though not racing at this distance in 20 months. The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow does have two victories at Santa Anita this year in routes leading after eight furlongs. Top challengers: Pyro, also skipping the Breeders’ Cup Classic; Lewis Michael, 2-2-0 of 4 at the distance; and Mast Track, the likely pacesetter despite a minor quarter crack.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf): Despite averaging about 13 entries, chalk has finished on top nearly one-third of the time. Only Lure in ‘92 was in front at every call and repeated in ‘93 when stalking the pace. Kip Deville, 9 of 13 at the distance and 2 for 2 at Santa Anita, stands a good chance of repeating. Top contenders: Irish-bred Goldikova, 5-2-0 of 7 at a mile; and Whatsthescript, 4 of 8 at the distance.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles: Endurance is a key factor. Eighteen winners were among the top three choices. Horses to watch are sired by this year’s No. 2 earnings champ Lion Heart (3 for 3 as a 2-year-old): Azul Leon and Silent Valor. I like Munnings, the early lukewarm 7-2 choice who drew the rail, and Street Hero, 6-1, breaking from post 8 with the best time of 1:42 at the distance at Santa Anita.

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a mile: It’s dart time again.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Sprint, six furlongs: No running style has dominated. There have been five wire-to-wire victories, seven closed from back of the pack and nine turned for home in front. I like Fatal Bullet, In Summation and Street Boss, not necessarily in that order.

$3 Million Breeders’ Cup Turf, 1 1/2 miles: Thirteen European-bred horses won. Class and form often point to the winner. You make the call.

$5 Million Breeders’ Cup Classic, 1 1/4 miles: Only four horses scored from posts 1-3, including Ghostzapper on the rail in ‘04 who was only the second wire-to-wire winner since ‘91 when Black Tie Affair triumphed off the longest layoff — 49 days. Outside is the place to be as nine won from posts 10 through 14, including ‘07 champ Curlin from post 11. The early 7-5 favorite breaks from post 9. The son of Smart Strike wins again.

About The Author Greg Melikov: Horse Racing Handicapper/Turf Writer

Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

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"How I See the 14 Races of 25th Breeders’ Cup" was posted on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008 at 10:08 am and is filed under Breeders' Cup, Horse Racing Industry, Horses, Race Tracks, Racing Picks & Betting Tips, Stakes Races. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Leave a response, or trackback from your own site.