Here’s Another Handicapping Tool Worth Trying
By GREG MELIKOV
I’m making an addition to my handicapping toolbox after an experiment since late summer produced quite a few winners.
It’s one of the helpful features of Brisnet.com past performances listed on the front of each race – the figure beneath “SPEED.” The number is the average winning speed at the distance during a particular track’s meeting.
From time to time I adjust my toolbox. This is just another way to consider speed when handicapping races no matter the track. I still include my favorites: class, horses for courses, successful jockey-trainer combos, running styles and racing patterns.
What I like about this tool is it separates the speedier and slower horses at a particular distance that’s especially telling after the first couple of weeks at a meeting no matter the surface.
I offer two recent examples starting with an allowance route Nov. 10 at the Meadowlands. This eight-horse contest was the 49th at a mile and 70 yards. Forty-six% of the winners showed early speed.
The top figure of 99 belonged to Fuencia posted three races back when the son of Fusachi Pegasus broke his maiden in a sprint.
The next highest, 97, belonged to favored Stevil, the classiest of the bunch that ran fourth in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes and fifth in the Preakness. But the son of Maria’s Mon hadn’t won since running that fast in his debut last fall taking a sprint.
I went for second-choice Pampered Sir, who won once at 1 1/16 miles and finished second three times at a mile and 70 yards, all allowance races since departing the grass in August. His speed figure: 93. A good omen: The son of Concerto was one of three contenders that consistently showed early speed.
Pampered Sir pressed the pace in second, took the lead after six furlongs and held off Stevil down the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length. Madman, who also had a high-speed figure of 93 winning last time out but in a low-level claimer, finished far back in third.
On Nov. 11 at Churchill Downs, an allowance race at seven furlongs featured nine fillies and mares with five evenly matched. But not a single one of the seven horses that raced the distance at the track posted the average winning speed figure: 93.
Two top contenders shared the top 88 number this year:
Distorted Passion, third in an allowance contest with the fastest time, and Geniver, who captured a claiming race.
I thought the main danger was Silent Street, but went for Distorted Passion, who stayed closer to the pace in most sprints.
The son of Distorted Humor tracked the pace, took the lead in the stretch, drew clear under steady urging and scored by 2 1/2 lengths. Silent Street finished second while Geniver ran fourth.
On Nov. 16 at Churchill Downs, a five-furlong race scheduled for the turf was transferred to the sealed muddy main track. Three horses were scratched.
I liked second-choice Simply Seattle, the top speed on grass with 94, who possessed the highest figure on dirt. 91. In addition, the daughter of Chief Seattle scored last spring on a sloppy surface, leading every step of the 5 1/2 furlongs. She won the same way in the first race at the distance on the main track during this meeting.
Favored Time Flies, with her debut on the turf postponed, was shortening up after impressively breaking her maiden by 8 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs three back at six furlongs. However, the daughter of Gilded Time hadn’t raced on an off track. She finished 1 1/2 lengths back in second.
"Here’s Another Handicapping Tool Worth Trying" was posted on 18 November 2008 9:32 AM under Handicapping, Horse Racing News, Horses, Race Tracks, Racing Analysis, Special Features
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