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The Tote Board Can Be Beneficial to Your Handicapping
By GREG MELIKOVÂ
How many times have you heard: “That longshot just dropped from 15-1. Somebody must have bet a bundle on him.â€
“That horse should be lower than 5-1.â€
“There’s no action on my pick at all.â€
Those are some observations I’ve heard watching the tote board trackside over the years. When the board lights up, you should pay attention. And since it’s often said, “money talks,†listen because the board has loads to say that can be beneficial to your handicapping.
Early money wagered supposedly is smart money. If a barn truly likes their horse’s chances, they traditionally get their money down faster than you can say “odds on.â€
How strongly a first-time starter is bet often reflects the barn’s opinion because the public has little to go on except for workouts, pedigree and the connections.
So when a horse receives solid backing for no apparent reason, a wager might be worth an investment, but you make the call.
Remember when the numbers on a favorite drop below 8-5 or so, odds on other contenders should rise. If those odds remain steady on the second and third choices, more often than not that means smart money is going down.
One betting angle: When a contender that lost previously steps up in class and the odds are lower than that last outing, the horse may be worth a wager. While logic says the odds should be higher, the contender may have needed that race. The more prolific the trainer, the better the chances to win.
Here are some tips from several experts on what to do when checking out the tote board:
Write down opening odds and watch for dips from 15-1 to 8-1 or so – that’s as significant as 9-2 down to 2-1.
If consistent horses coming off a layoff or following a bad race get some action, pay attention.
If a thoroughbred doesn’t look as good as the odds that are lower than expected given the class, the horse still might be worth using in exotics.
First-time starters bet down to odds-on favorites at major tracks frequently make decent singles in Pick 3s, 4s and 6s.
Watching pools for the next race when they first flash on the board after the previous contest is important. Then compare horses that get the most action with those getting the most action right before post time. Horses getting heavy play both times are likely to hit the board.
Pay more attention to fluctuations of odds in filly and mare races. They aren’t as consistent as males and often perform poorly as they go through female cycles. Early action often reflects confidence that they run up according to their capabilities.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
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One Response to “The Tote Board Can Be Beneficial to Your Handicapping”
Benji
May 11th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Hey thanks for writing this. I have been reading up a bit more since I had a nice size win (for me) at the derby which gave me the funds to go have some fun.
I like the idea of using the tote for picks, I don’t have enough experience to look at past performances and this makes a lot of sense to me.
Is the first listing of the odds on a monitor at the track enough notice to see the change in odds on a certain horse? Can I check odds online or something before I head down to the track or whatever.
I have tried to see some of Slick’s posts but I think some of the threads are older and I can’t get the links to work. If you can send this to someone who might be able to revive those I would REALLY be interested in reading them.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
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Benji
May 11th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Hey thanks for writing this. I have been reading up a bit more since I had a nice size win (for me) at the derby which gave me the funds to go have some fun.
I like the idea of using the tote for picks, I don’t have enough experience to look at past performances and this makes a lot of sense to me.
Is the first listing of the odds on a monitor at the track enough notice to see the change in odds on a certain horse? Can I check odds online or something before I head down to the track or whatever.
I have tried to see some of Slick’s posts but I think some of the threads are older and I can’t get the links to work. If you can send this to someone who might be able to revive those I would REALLY be interested in reading them.