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Nine of the 11 Breeders’ Cup races during the two-day $23 million spectacular that begins Oct. 26 at Monmouth Park are routes, including four on the turf.
During this year’s regular 62nd meeting, the longer contests weren’t dominated by speed like sprints, but front-runners did well.
In 80 races at one mile, victorious wire-to-wire horses numbered 25 percent. Winners leading at every call of 78 contests at a mile and 70 yards did better — 35 percent.
“I don’t know how much the summer condition plays in October because we have never run this late on this strip in a year,” said Paul Grimm, editor of the Oceanport Racing Report (www.oceanportracingreport.com). “I’m not aware whether the track management will alter the main track to add dirt or not.
“If the track becomes deeper I would have to think that would negate some speed, but we will have to wait and see. The earlier cards (Wednesday and Thursday) during the special four-day meet (Oct. 24-27) before Friday and Saturday should give us an indication.”
As for the turf course, “it was redone in ‘06,” Grimm pointed out. “A new drainage system and base with new sod was installed along with a new innovative five-furlong turf chute. Depending on who you talk to the grass does or doesn’t drain any better, but the strip is seven furlongs and the turns are tight.”
More inside information: “I have been through all the charts for 2007,” he said. “In mile grass races, outside posts are at a big disadvantage. There were a couple of new course records at this meet (including 1 3/8 miles, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf distance on Oct. 27), but most were broken last year as the new grass was faster than the old surface.
“Although when they run the Monmouth meet the heat can tend to bake the course. It gets very firm if we don’t get rain, but will play more honest than the dirt as far as speed is concerned.
“The grass held up extremely well and stayed green all summer. They managed to use the entire course with the portable rail so it did not get abused and was actually in very good condition at the end of the meet although we did finish a few weeks earlier this year.”
Grimm ought to know. “I have worked on this course when I was a college student so I have a pretty good feel for its condition.”
During this year’s meeting, only 17 percent of winners in 108 turf routes led from start to finish. The best place to be: inside.
“English Channel and Better Talk Now have been successful over this course and the American contingent will probably have an advantage here especially if the turf is firm,” Grimm said.
On July 7, English Channel won the Grade 1 United Nations at 1 3/8 miles on the grass by a length over Honey Ryder while Better Talk Now finished third another two lengths back in third.
Honey Ryder most likely will go in the BC Filly & Turf. Top contenders in the 1 ½-mile BC Turf are English Channel, 2 for 2 at Monmouth, and Better Talk Now, 1-1-1 in 4 outings at the track.
Two other likely contenders have hit the board on the Monmouth grass: Red Giant, winner by a nose in the one-mile Restoration Stakes on June 17, and 9-year-old The Tin Man, second in a race several years back.
“Monmouth will use the one mile dirt course and the seven-eighths grass course for Breeders’ Cup racing,” he added. “I don’t expect to see the five-furlong turf chute used on BC days, but maybe on Wednesday and Thursday.”
There were only 21 sprints on the grass during the regular meeting, with 33 percent of winners leading all the way.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
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