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Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby Will Pare Louisville Hopefuls
By GREG MELIKOV
The final major preps for the Kentucky Derby will go a long way toward deciding which 3-year-olds enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Running well in the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes or the $1 million Arkansas Derby, both at 1 1/8 miles, won’t automatically qualify for a shot at a healthy chunk of the guaranteed $2 million purse at Churchill Downs.
That’s because the number of starters on May 5 is limited to 20, based on graded stakes earnings, like last year when Barbaro banked more than $1,450,000. And only twice in 21 years has the field at Louisville fallen below 15.
Chief contenders in Saturday’s Blue Grass are already in the Top 5 in earnings as well as most 3-year-old rankings:
Street Sense, already a millionaire primarily because of his 10-length victory in the Breeders’ Cub Juvenile at Churchill Downs last fall, is the likely post time favorite. He won his sophomore debut in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 17.
Great Hunter, third in the BC Juvenile with earnings of $730,000, captured the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on at Santa Anita Park on March 3.The main negative for them even if either wins at Kenneland is no horse with only two preps has smelled the roses since Sunny’s Halo in ’83.
A big question mark had been Hard Spun after the impressive victory in the Lane’s End at Turfway Park that raised his earnings to $360,000. On Tuesday, his interests made it clear he won’t run in the Blue Grass.
A serious workout this week at Churchill Downs will determine where he races next. If he handles the surface well, he will train up to the Kentucky Derby like quite a few others. If he doesn’t, he will run in the Coolmore Lexington on April 21, but then go to the Preakness.The Blue Grass means most to several other horses that won’t make it to Louisville if the don’t bank more cash:
Zanjero, third in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, has earned $130,000, while Teuflesberg, third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, is father down the list with $120,000.
The $1 million Arkansas Derby field features second-tier contenders for America’s Race led by Curlin, who romped to victory in the Rebel by 5 ¼ lengths in only his second start. His earnings are a fairly comfortable $180,000.
Curlin not only will be bucking odds to score at Louisville off two preps, but do what no horse that didn’t race as a 2-year-old has accomplished since Apollo in 1882.
Officer Rocket, second in the Southwest and Rebel, could be on the bubble if he doesn’t at least hit the board since his earnings just top $153,000.
Way down on the list are Ketchikan, runner-up in the Louisiana Derby with $120,000, and Dominican, winner of the Rushaway at Turfway with $33,848.
Other horses expected to race have even less graded earnings: Air Commander, second in the San Felipe at Santa Anita; Delightful Kiss, third in the Tampa Bay Derby; and Deadly Dealer, victorious in a Gulfstream allowance race.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear in print and on the Internet around the world. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, his favorite horse, whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.
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