Week 9 NFL Selections Here Please:

[Docwatson]

Please post your Week 9 NFL picks here in this thread.

Good luck to all.

Peace

Doc

[Tommy Gold]

For NFL 2009 Week 9, I've only 5 pointspreads to risk:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker;

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker;

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[Docwatson]

NFL 2009: 26-22, +11.45*


Well I finally had that “day” as the hard work pays off in football, and I go 4-0, +10.0*. Starting the day with a Navy, Ohio State, and Stanford win in CFB, and ending with a CFL win on Saskatchewan. None of them were sweaters of any kind, and that's always a great thing. I did give back over half of my profits made in horse racing yesterday, and while it wasn't the best of days at the track I still managed to make a little cheese over the two days. I hope all had a profitable day at whatever it was that you may have had a hand in.



2* Carolina +13.5



I’ve looked these games over pretty good and I keep coming back to this one. Mainly because I like taking DD divisional dogs just like I did Monday night with Atlanta. Now I know the Saints can tear me a new one very quickly especially if Jake Delhomme gets his interception count going upwards again. I personally have trouble handicapping the angle of turnovers, and believe that those numbers even out over time.



I see that defensively Carolina has a couple of key statistical edges that I keep track over New Orleans, and when you have a big dog it’s nice to know that are better on defense in some key area’s than of their opponent.



I have a TON of angles and even systems in support of my play, but I don’t have that stuff here beside me to list them all as I’m sending this out through my phone on to the wife who’ll be doing the posting for me. So you’ll just have to trust me on that statement here. So say hi to Mrs. Doc.



I think the Saints defense is their weak point, and I know that’s an obvious statement because of just how good their offense is. However I think the solid rushing game that Carolina brings will be able to take advantage of a New Orleans defense that is giving up 4.5 yards per carry. This should help Carolina control the clock better and keep the game within reason. Just like Monday night the Panthers are familiar with playing in the Super Dome, and shouldn’t be rattled when going against these Saints since they see them twice a year anyway. With New Orleans giving up 27 plus in four of their games this year, and three of those four coming here at home I have to like getting close to two TD’s here.



GL



Doc

[Docwatson]

NFL 2009: 26-22, +11.45*


Well I finally had that “day” as the hard work pays off in football, and I go 4-0, +10.0*. Starting the day with a Navy, Ohio State, and Stanford win in CFB, and ending with a CFL win on Saskatchewan. None of them were sweaters of any kind, and that's always a great thing. I did give back over half of my profits made in horse racing yesterday, and while it wasn't the best of days at the track I still managed to make a little cheese over the two days. I hope all had a profitable day at whatever it was that you may have had a hand in.



2* Carolina +13.5



I’ve looked these games over pretty good and I keep coming back to this one. Mainly because I like taking DD divisional dogs just like I did Monday night with Atlanta. Now I know the Saints can tear me a new one very quickly especially if Jake Delhomme gets his interception count going upwards again. I personally have trouble handicapping the angle of turnovers, and believe that those numbers even out over time.



I see that defensively Carolina has a couple of key statistical edges that I keep track over New Orleans, and when you have a big dog it’s nice to know that are better on defense in some key area’s than of their opponent.



I have a TON of angles and even systems in support of my play, but I don’t have that stuff here beside me to list them all as I’m sending this out through my phone on to the wife who’ll be doing the posting for me. So you’ll just have to trust me on that statement here. So say hi to Mrs. Doc.



I think the Saints defense is their weak point, and I know that’s an obvious statement because of just how good their offense is. However I think the solid rushing game that Carolina brings will be able to take advantage of a New Orleans defense that is giving up 4.5 yards per carry. This should help Carolina control the clock better and keep the game within reason. Just like Monday night the Panthers are familiar with playing in the Super Dome, and shouldn’t be rattled when going against these Saints since they see them twice a year anyway. With New Orleans giving up 27 plus in four of their games this year, and three of those four coming here at home I have to like getting close to two TD’s here.



GL



Doc

[Tommy Gold]

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come from a Bye Week and had enough time to study the Ravens and will surely be fit for this game. Baltimore after 3 straight losses were able to win their last game in a surprising way, still the team will have to raise their game to beat the Bengals on the road.

Baltimore's defense was undoubtedly their strong spot and was regarded as the best of the NFL, but with the transfer of Rex Ryan to the New York Jets team, we have seen a lot of mistakes done by the Ravens' D and their opponents had taken advantage of those errors. On the other hand, we have a good QB Carson Palmer who usually plays very well against Baltimore and he has good chances to do deep passes on this game with WR Chad Ochocinco as the main target. On the Running Game, Cincinnati has RB Cedric Benson playing very well this season and he has been reliable game after game.

Cincy is having a lot of difficulties on focus against average teams, their motivation seems to never be the better, but against top teams, they always give their best and on this season, they are being quite successful, their defense has been quite well too, mainly against the opponents' running game. I see a lot of troubles for RB Ray Rice to do a good game today and the same goes to QB Joe Flacco and his deep passes para o WR Derrick Mason, which will be today a risky proposition because Cincy D has been playing very well against the passing game too.

This season I consider these Bengals a serious contender for the playoffs, with an excellent defense and offense so far, as long Carson Palmer remains healthy, and for this game, Cincinnati has the edge on all the match ups (defense, offense, running game and QB position) and their home field advantage will surely help the small home dog Bengals to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[Gambler]

I went 6-3 in college yesterday and ended the week at 7-3-1. I'll take 70% anyday!
On to the pros

Washington +9
Green Bay -9.5 (probably not a good idea)
Carolina +13
Philly -3

GLTA

[Tommy Gold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Arizona this season reminds me a New York Giants that had bad home games but on the road were able to win all their matches and the same thing is happening this year to these Cardinals, which are playing much better on the road than at home. Arizona was completely dominated by Carolina's rushing game last week, still the Cards are one of the best teams to stop that kind of offense. RB Matt Forte will surely have some difficulties on his rushing game because I believe that Arizona will surely show much more attitude on that defensive aspect during this game thanks to what happened last week.

Arizona's running game is not one of the best in the league, despite RB Tim Hightower has shown some improvements lately this season, but we all know how good the Cards are on the passing game, with a good QB Kurt Warner on the road and excellents WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin as main targets. The great problem with the Chicago Bears team has been their offense, the defense is doing their job, QB Jay Cutler shakes a lot when the offensive game becomes obvious for the Bears O, meaning that when the team goes for the Passing Game only, Jay Cutler is not cut for the task and suffers interceptions, 11 this season.

For this game, besides the home field advantage, the only edges I give for the Bears are the running game and the passing defense, because on the air offense the Cardinals are a much more superior team and I think that it will be on the passing game that a good and experienced Warner will give us the edge for this game against a shaky Jay Cutler when pressured to make the right calls, so I believe that Arizona will win this game straight up as a small road dog.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[Tommy Gold]

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

It is a fact that both teams are having a very bad season so far, the Detroit Lions (1-6) not even with QB Matthew Stafford cannot stop losing games after games, which is understandable since is his rookie year on the NFL, but because the team has several injured players in key positions and the main absence of this Lions team is their best player, WR Calvin Johnson. Without him, the team can't score much more points and that is a bad thing, because this team suffers a lot of points.

The Lions D is very bad, they conceded a lot of points and on the road games, they are a complete mess, usually suffering around 30+ points which is ridiculous. Without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford is in deep trouble, because the Lions' rushing game with RB Kevin Smith is not a big deal either, so we have a Detroit Lions team with a weak offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL on the points allowed ranking.

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) this season have not convinced, it is true that QB Matt Hasselbeck has missed some games, but even with him the team has been far away of what was being expected of the Seahawks this season, yet they play at home today and it's never easy to play in Seattle and they will face one of the worst teams of the NFL. Against lousy teams like the Rams, they didn't suffer a single point and against the Jaguars the end result was a clear 41-0. It's on the road games that they are completely dominated.

Why I see value on this point spread of the Seahawks is easy to explain. The team as a good quarterback and Hasselbeck has good receivers to pass the ball like WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh and WR Nate Burleson, which will surely cause a lot of damage on the weak Lions' defense and even on the rushing game RB Julius Jones will be able to do a good game, because Detroit defense is also weak against this kind of offense.

Again, it's true that the Seahawks has convinced anyone this season, but they have a good team and playing at home against the worst team of the NFL right now, I believe that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[Tommy Gold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF)

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) despite their last match has not been their best game, they had showed good performances on the last weeks. QB Tony Romo has found a new buddy to whom he can trust the ball: WR Miles Austin. He has been the key for Dallas to win the last games, but on this game the Cowboys offense will face on the road a better defense than any of the defenses they had encounter on the previous 3 matches and that is the reason why they had won those games.

The Cowboys team has a good rushing game thanks to their RB Marion Barber and RB Felix Jones, who are very strong and they always win good yards for Dallas. The passing game seems to work well too, with Miles Austin e TE Jason Witten, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet on the road such a good defense like the Eagles D, if we exclude the home loss on the Week 2 against the New York Giants, and we should not forget that Tony Romo always trembles on these high profile marquee games when it's time to make difficult calls.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) has also improved this season, because his offensive line has been able to give their QB Donovan McNabb enough time for him to solve the situation and his passes are rarely intercepted. He is doing a fantastic season and usually makes the right calls, if the Eagles' OL are able once again to give him enough time inside the pocket, Donovan McNabb will certainly cause a lot of damage on the Cowboys defense, which is nothing special, thanks to WR DeSean Jackson e TE Brent, whom will be a true danger to Dallas D.

The return to good form of the Eagles' rushing game is also good news for Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy has done good performances, but with RB Brian Westbrook back, he is one of the best rushers of the NFL, the Eagles offense will show a nice versatility and do heavy damage on the Cowboys defense.

The way Philadelphia has played lately at home and with the home field advantage, plus the loud support of their crowd, makes this Eagle team the right small home favorite and I expect them to win this game by at least one touchdown.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[Docwatson]

NFL 2009: 27-22, +13.45*

Another sweep on Sunday with a win on Carolina and a 2-0 in the NBA (HEY how about that?!?!) for a clean sweep of Saturday & Sunday. Let's see if we can't get a win for MNF.

1* Pittsburgh -3

Yep, it may be a majority play (we are all public), but I think it's a winning one. Not so much that I think its worth more than a one unit wager and will play it as such. However my thinking is that the oddsmakers know they have gotten the majority a few times already in this situation listing the Broncs as three point home dogs vs. New England & Dallas. Here it is again for a third straight home game yet I'm seeing quite a bit more people leaning to the Bronco's. Not to mention the fact that they just scored a MNF win a couple weeks back as 3.5 point dog. Throw in the also that the Super Bowl Champs have covered the spread just twice this season and for this game the line has been adjusted accordingly.

The Steelers have the offensive edge in the major statistical categories that I keep and both are even in the major defensive categories. A slight statistical edge for the game IMO goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I have some super solid trends for both teams and I mean tons, but one I found interesting the most is this one. Denver is 1-11 ATS L/12 vs. teams that are completing 64% or more of their passes. Keeping in tune with how the season has gone I see that the team with the better passing yards per attempt since week 3 is now 49-37, 64.4 % ATS.

With what I think is so,e line value on the Steelers and the better passing attack, and a week off to prepare has me taking the road favorite to get it done tonight.

GL

Doc