NHL 2009/2010 Season Thread

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.02 results:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek (6-2: WIN)

2009.11.02 finished with a 1-0 and +1.75 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 24-37 (-4.05 units lost/61 units risked)

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.04, 4 picks:

New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle

Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet

Writeups will be posted later in the day.

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.04 results:

New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-0: LOSS)
San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle (2-3 SO: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (3-0: WIN)
Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet (2-3 OT: LOSS)

2009.11.04 finished with a 1-3 and -1.8 units lost/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-40 (-5.85 units lost/65 units risked)




2009.11.05, 2 picks:


Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins

For this match up, we would have a perspective when the season started, a good game. However, this teams were disappointing, showing only in few games the talent they got in their rosters. In this moment, Montreal are showing some improvements, with 5 of their 7 wins, appearing in their last 6 home games. However, when we though that Montreal was getting strong, they went to Pittsburgh to a blowout loss, and achieving another loss in the next game, at Chicago.

So, Montreal is not a reliable team. Knowing they are coming from a home loss, where they were trying to use their home advantage to rise their game, we can view here a spot: as a non reliable team, they are without confidence, as their efforts for the 6 straight wins at home, were smashed. Montreal as showed as well problems in their defense, taking most of their wins to OT, resulting from a power defense that shows problems when pressured, often allowing goals in the last minutes.

Boston, is a curious team, as they usually alternates a win with a loss. But for the first time this season, they got 2 straight losses, and worst, 0 goals on that games. They are on red alert about their offense, struggling with Savard injury. But even with Savard out, they already proved that they can score, and had improve their defense game to cover that powerless offense. In their last games, they are allowing just 1.60 goals per game.

So, for this game, I will take Boston 3way, but that's because this teams some times don´t play as we expect, otherwise, I would take PL. Montreal with huge defensive problems, coming from a loss, and know that tomorrow, when they return to home, they got to win to any cost to continue showing their fans improvement. So, I expect a cautious Canadians team, playing just the enough to don´t be humiliated. Boston, have offense problems, but will not miss this opportunity, facing a awful defensive team. With their defense, which will be the key for victory, they can with calm improve their offense.

Don´t forget the confidence, Montreal is not a reliable team, as Boston is more than accustomed to losses, normally giving great responses, as I expect today.


Pick: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker



Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

After a nice start, Senator lost some of they fuel, with 4 losses in last 5. Despite the recent form, we can build a probable scenario for today's game. This because Senators had almost a week off, playing last game 5 days ago. So, they had time to think what was missing in the last games, and how to return to initial form. Don´t forget that they got the will, as they are angry because of the last loss, a defeat at home against Atlanta, due to a sensational perform of Atlanta´s GK. So, they know what they are capable, they know how to play well, and make sure they can seek luck.

Tampa, is a team that I already described many times. Home team. They live under the talent of their first line, but that talent needs to be stimulated by the supporters. In foreign pavilions, they usually can´t get that talented, and their first away win, yesterday, was because of Toronto demerit. If we look before yesterday, they lost 3 away games for 3 or more goals. Curious is the fact that they suffered the biggest defeat two weeks ago at this field, losing 7-1 to Senators. But they already gave their revenge, winning 5-2 at home.

So, for this game, I think we have a great value on Senators PL. Is not so risky as it seems, and the odds are with 0.40 plus than what I think it would be fare. Senators, despite the last results, had time to think their game. This game is the perfect game to them, they know how to break this team, as they won 7-1 two weeks ago. They can´t wait a better team to face tonight and show they can improve from the last results.

Tampa, get their first away win yesterday, and will have a B2B game, in a uncomfortable position to them. They got a little bit of luck, as they won with opponent demerit and had a more tired game, as they got to hold the result despite Toronto pressure. They are a easy prey as visitors, and Senators will like be a bad host for them.


Pick: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.05 results:

Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-2 SO: LOSS)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker (3-2 OT: LOSS)

2009.11.05 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-42 (-7.85 units lost/67 units risked)




2009.11.06, 1 Pick:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes

Be aware about this play. This game can be a long shot, however, there is a big value on PL line. I will not let this one pass. Hurricanes are with 9 losses in a row. They are with the worst records in PIM and scoring. But, they have one team worst than them in goals allowed. Imagine who? Toronto.

For those who keep a track of my picks, already knows that fade Carolina has been a good bet, but i had advise everyone to the turning point. That turning point will probable appear at home, and I´m sure that will happen soon, and at home against a poor road team. Difficult will be to analyse if there will be a real turn point, or a fake turn point, but, one victory, will appear in the next games for sure.

For this game, Caroline will bet everything they got. Hurricane´s coach don´t feel is job is in jeopardy, giving the excuse of injuries and so on to the results. However, he seems a believer, and that could be great to rise Hurricane´s confidence. At least, this is my thought. About the roster, the news are not the bests, with Whitney probably joining Staal on the injurie´s list. They call their first pick from last year draft to fill the empty spots in their offense, and will play today.

Toronto, got their first win in their last road trip. Curiously, after that win, they got 4 OT losses in 4 games. This can damage a team, that get their first win, feel that they can turn things around, and them, lost 4 games on OT, where they tried to give all they got, and feel no luck. Defense, was their problem, and they are demoralizing for sure. There were no results when they feel that they can bring results, particularly in last game at home.

So, this game will be the battle for the worst team title. Two teams, digging deep their own holes without any help. Today, someone has to win, who will be? Toronto, the "one win team", who have no luck and are the worst defense team? Or Carolina, a team with their worst losing streak since 93/93?

My guess, is that Caroline, a team that get the playoffs last season, and i enjoyed to watch, will play to win, and win. They are a team that can fight, just need an opportunities to break this streak. Even with their best players out, this is game is not a question of talent, but a question of will, and believes.

Take note that this game have no value on ML and 3WAY play. PL have a great value, as I believe that Carolina will play with all they got, and the public will try to help. Against a poor defensive team, this is their opportunity. Toronto just waste their last opportunities, will arrive to this game with no confidence. In the last Hurricanes win, they won at home 7-2.

So, if they start their engines at home, against a this awful defensive team, we can expect a blowout, they will get enthusiasm and can turn this one in a easy game.


Pick: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes, Diamond (DSI)

[Tommy Gold]

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres are being great so far. With 9-2-10 record, they are a no fearing team. Their losses comes in NY Islanders and at home against Atlanta, but Detroit for example, they were able to shutdown. They got courage. Despite my opinion (I still have doubts about their reliability), they are proving something, being cohesive, and taking the advantage of Ryan's Miller performance so far.

Flyers, is the team I most enjoy to watch. Show is what they promise, and they come from 2 blowout wins at home. At road, they still have to improve their game, because is not so easy for them to play outside, their kind of game is more adequate to play at home.

However, the spot for me to this game, is that the team have some players with flu and had made today an airplane travel, where the air is not well renewed. So, it's likely that more players got the virus (seasonal flu, not H1N1), and as we know, flu most effects is physical tireness and fever. There is medication to ease the symptons, but it is not enought on theses cases. So, it seems to me a game to take Sabres. Without this spot, I would take Flyers for sure as dogs, but I wonder if bookies didn't make them dogs because of the flu...


Pick: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.06 results:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes (2-3: LOSS)
Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)

2009.11.06 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-44 (-9.85 units lost/69 units risked)

Not pretty...

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.10, only 1 Pick:

Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens

This is a game between two canadian teams. Montreal is a very experienced team, full of seasoned players. However, they haven't played well, they had a bad start and only recently at home they've got a good winning streak. Yet, the losses have returned.

Calgary is a very strong team this year in my opinion and they are playing well. They have difficulties in managing their motivation, which translates in their results, when they have a loss, on their next game, they usually have a second loss two... This show some lack of mental strength, despite the quality of the roster.

This is a game with a simple spot. Montreal is a very seasoned team and they play much better at home. Despite their bad moment, they like to host canadian teams and they give all they've got on these games, usually scoring good results. They are mentally strong and can reverse the late bad results trend, fighting against one of the best teams of the league. Calgary despite their good games, doesn't have now the needed mental strength, showing some strain on their last games.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

[Tommy Gold]

Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators

Another game between canadian teams. Edmonton has several absences for today and they are in a bad moment, only 2 wins in their last 8 games. Ottawa has a team with very experienced and talented players, they lost their last 3 home games, and they need to win again. They will have several home games in the upcoming weeks, so they can't waste much more opportunities and today they will surely take advantage of the circunstancial opponent's frailty.


Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[Tommy Gold]

2009.11.10 results:

Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (0-1: LOSS)
Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (4-3 SO: LOSS)

2009.11.10 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-46 (-11.85 units lost/71 units risked)




2009.11.11, only 1 Pick:


Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres

Khabibulin has not been particularly good at the road. Even being clear that he is a good goaltender, he are not having their best season, and had some struggling games. The last games have been hard for Oilers, going with 2-7, after a good season opening. It is easy to figure that the injuries are being so far their biggest trouble, and team are with some some mental problems. They come from a OT lost, but they won the game before that, at "cinderela´s team" home (Colorado). But what we have to see here is that the team depends to much of their best players. When the offensive players were out, they had problems to score. So, this tell us that they need their best players in their best, in order to fight their games. Their defense are being a little bit down with Souray out.

Sabres, with the fantastic Miller at the nets, are a team that finally proves what i said. They can do their best or their worth, and the value in bets involving them, is to have a good read about their motivation, and how they will face the game. And today, I think we will have a good day for them. They already proved their strength, specially at home. They can play pretty well, and give a good show, entertaining every one. The truth is that this team, with only 4 defeats in this season, are 1-3 in the last 4. This show that they got their worst right now. But they got the ability, particularly at home, to turn this around at any moment.

After struggling the last games, Sabres have here a gold opportunity, they had 4 days to thin what was wrong. They usually reacts well, when hosting poor road teams. Specially today, we should expect a game with lots of goals for Sabres, because Oilers are in B2B game, and this can damage a lot this team, with lot of injuries, and probably one of their best offensive players out, Hemsky. Their best players, after trying hard yesterday for a win, will play again today, after a travel from Ottawa to Buffalo today. We can´t expect to much on them, and even less from other players. So, this seems a easy one.


Pick: Buffalo Sabres PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI)

[abeabe]

Nice comeback after yesterday, Tommy. WTG!!!!!