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Sunday, May 8, 2005
PIMLICO Race Course Picks for SUN (5/8) Posted @ 7:21 by Webmaster
Full coverage of daily racing at PIMLICO leading to the 130th Preakness Stakes on May 21. We hope that GIACOMO runs in the Preakness, that he wins it then we have a Triple Crown bid in the making.
PIMLICO
race1: 6,5,3,4
race2: 2,5,1,3
race3: 3,6,1,4
race4: 5,3,4,7
race5: 1,8,9,5
race6: 5,4,6,11
race7: 2,4,5,3
race8: 1,3,6,5
race9: 9,1,8,2
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Belmont, Calder, Charles Town & Hollywood Picks! for Sun (5/8) Posted @ 7:18 by Webmaster
Here it is, that one race that we have all been waiting for and speculating about in the last 3 months, and intensely in the last 6 weeks. You know your contenders very well by now, at this point y'all have to head to the betting window and put your money where your mouth (or heart) is. You are encouraged to head to our Live Handicapping Forum for even more insight into the biggest race in North America. Whatever you do, pray - we all need a lot of LUCK with a 20 horse field. :-D
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Thursday, May 5, 2005
Run for the Roses: Beware of the No No's Posted @ 10:15 by Webmaster
By GREG MELIKOV HorsesWild contributor/Staff Writer
There are overwhelming trends that can't be dismissed when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. I call them no no's.
For instance, no 3-year-old unraced as a juvenile made it to the winner's circle since Apollo in 1882.
A big plus: juveniles who won races at a mile or longer. More than a dozen contenders qualify. Another big plus: three or four preps as a sophomore and at least one at 1 1/8 miles. Again many contenders satisfy this condition.
No runner with only four career outings has smelled the roses since Exterminator in 1918. That was a bad omen for Blues and Royals, Godolphin Racing’s runaway winner of the UAE Derby in his only start this year.
Worse yet is a respiratory infection that knocked him out of The Derby. However, if he had traveled to Louisville, he would have bucked two other trends.
Since '47, only Sunny's Halo in '83 won The Derby off two preps while 20 horses with a lone prep failed.
Other top contenders that fall into this category are the Nick Zito-trained Bellamy Road, impressive winner of the Wood Memorial; High Limit, second to Blue Grass Stakes winner Bandini; Closing Argument, third in the Blue Grass and winner of the Holy Bull Stakes; Wilko, third in the Santa Anita Derby; and Rockport Harbor, entered in Saturday's Lexington Stakes, which has produced only one winner in 32 years: Charismatic in '99.
No horse with a layoff of five weeks or more triumphed at Churchill Downs since Needles in ’56. Remember what happened last year to Florida Derby winner Friends Lake and fourth-place finisher Read the Footnotes – they came up empty. Unfortunately, Zito’s High Fly and Noble Causeway, 1-2 in this year’s Florida Derby, are going that route.
But Zito is optimistic about his contenders’ chances: “Maybe these are the horses that will show people that you can win The Derby off a five-week layoff.”
No Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has smelled the roses. That’s another knock on Wilko.
No horse since Proud Clarion in ’67 won The Derby without finishing first in a stakes race. So far, four haven’t: Daddy Joe, Don’t Get Mad, Giacomo and Noble Causeway.
The last horse to win The Derby after running fifth or worse in his final prep was Iron Liege in ’57. Quite a few also-rans are in this group. And only two horses in the last 47 years that did not hit the board won anyway: Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch, both fourth in the Blue Grass.
At least that gives Zito’s Sun King, fourth in this year’s Blue Grass, a glimmer of hope. And it doesn’t hurt that the trainer has five horses destined to make the Kentucky Derby.
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Final Piece in Derby Puzzle Is Post Positions Posted @ 9:51 by Webmaster
By GREG MELIKOV
The draw for post positions in the 131st Kentucky Derby proved surprising on Wednesday. That’s because of those parties making the first dozen selections, five went for posts 10, 11, 12, 14 and 16.
Bellamy Road, the 5-2 morning line favorite and one of the speedballs in the 20-horse field, will come out of post 16, with 2 victories. There’s good reason for trainer Nick Zito using the 10th pick for that outside post: other likely front-runners break to the inside. They include High Limit (post 6 that has 6 wins), 12-1; Greeley’s Galaxy (9 with 4 victories), 15-1; and Spanish Chestnut (13 with 2 triumphs), 50-1.
If Bellamy Road goes off as the post time favorite and makes the winner’s circle, he will be only the third horse since Spectacular Bid in 1979 to live up to his odds. The others: Smarty Jones in ’04 and Fusaichi Pegasus five years ago.
No favorite, however, triumphed in the ’90s and ’80s. From ’80 to ’99 when there were 15 double-digit winners the average return exceeded $27.
This is the 25th straight race some horses will break from an auxiliary gate. Since ’81, when 21 horses ran, there have been fields of 19 or 20 eight times.
While 66 of the 130 winners broke from the inside seven posts, during the last decade, six winners came out of post 13 through 16. On Saturday, in addition to outside horses Spanish Chestnut and Bellamy Road, Wilko comes out of 14 (4 winners) and Bandini departs 15 (3 winners).
The top winning posts are No. 1, which hasn’t scored in quite a few years, and 5: Sort It Out, 50-1, and Coin Silver, 20-1, drew those slots. Next comes post 4 with 10 victories, Noble Causeway, 12-1; followed by 2 with 9, Andromeda’s Hero, 50-1; then 3 and 8 with 8; Sun King, 15-1, and Greater Good, 20-1; and 7 with 7, Flower Alley, 20-1.
The only posts that haven’t produced a winner are 17, Don’t Get Madd, 30-1, and 19, Going Wild, 50-1.
Others posts with number of victories and the remainging field are Giacomo, 50-1, post 10, with 10 victories; High Fly, 8-1, post 11, with 3 wins; Afleet Alex, 9-2, post 12, with 3 victories; Closing Argument, 30-1, post 18, with 1 triumph; and Buzzards Bay, 20-1, post 20, with a single win
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FREE $50 wager at OASIS CASINO & RACEBOOK! Posted @ 9:40 by Webmaster
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